The ECB's October 2026 decision to hold the deposit rate at 2.5% followed clear signals that a 25 basis point increase to 2.75% is likely at the December 17 meeting, driven by energy price surges from geopolitical tensions that lifted headline inflation to around 4%. Policymakers have highlighted upside risks to the inflation outlook while noting stable core measures and limited second-round effects so far, with new staff projections due in December reinforcing a data-dependent path toward one final tightening step. Recent Reuters and Bloomberg surveys show near-unanimous economist expectations for this move as the cycle peak, aligning with the market's 93% consensus on a 25 bps hike. A sharp reversal in energy costs or unexpectedly weak growth and financing data could still alter the outcome before year-end.