Eurozone inflation running near 3.8%—nearly double the ECB’s 2% target—driven by elevated energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions has shifted economist and market expectations toward further tightening. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% in September and is widely anticipated to hold steady at the October meeting. A Reuters poll of 73 economists shows nearly 90% now projecting another 25 basis point increase in December, reflecting upward revisions to inflation forecasts and resilient growth data. This consensus underpins trader positioning on a modest hike as the most probable outcome, with limited support for larger moves or cuts absent clearer evidence of second-round effects or policy easing.