Xi Jinping’s repeated anti-corruption purges and military reshuffles have centralized authority over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army, producing the 96.4 percent trader consensus that no coup attempt will occur before 2027. The January 2026 investigation into senior general Zhang Youxia and related personnel changes eliminated potential rivals without generating visible elite resistance, leadership vacuums, or coordinated challenges to central directives. Ongoing loyalty vetting and institutional controls ahead of the 2027 Party Congress have further reinforced this structure. A sudden health crisis for Xi, severe economic dislocation fracturing senior cadres, or major external shock could still create openings for instability, yet the absence of public signals of organized dissent continues to anchor expectations of continuity.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$132,052 Vol.
$132,052 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$132,052 Vol.
$132,052 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s repeated anti-corruption purges and military reshuffles have centralized authority over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army, producing the 96.4 percent trader consensus that no coup attempt will occur before 2027. The January 2026 investigation into senior general Zhang Youxia and related personnel changes eliminated potential rivals without generating visible elite resistance, leadership vacuums, or coordinated challenges to central directives. Ongoing loyalty vetting and institutional controls ahead of the 2027 Party Congress have further reinforced this structure. A sudden health crisis for Xi, severe economic dislocation fracturing senior cadres, or major external shock could still create openings for instability, yet the absence of public signals of organized dissent continues to anchor expectations of continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$132,052Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s repeated anti-corruption purges and military reshuffles have centralized authority over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army, producing the 96.4 percent trader consensus that no coup attempt will occur before 2027. The January 2026 investigation into senior general Zhang Youxia and related personnel changes eliminated potential rivals without generating visible elite resistance, leadership vacuums, or coordinated challenges to central directives. Ongoing loyalty vetting and institutional controls ahead of the 2027 Party Congress have further reinforced this structure. A sudden health crisis for Xi, severe economic dislocation fracturing senior cadres, or major external shock could still create openings for instability, yet the absence of public signals of organized dissent continues to anchor expectations of continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$132,052Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s repeated anti-corruption purges and military reshuffles have centralized authority over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army, producing the 96.4 percent trader consensus that no coup attempt will occur before 2027. The January 2026 investigation into senior general Zhang Youxia and related personnel changes eliminated potential rivals without generating visible elite resistance, leadership vacuums, or coordinated challenges to central directives. Ongoing loyalty vetting and institutional controls ahead of the 2027 Party Congress have further reinforced this structure. A sudden health crisis for Xi, severe economic dislocation fracturing senior cadres, or major external shock could still create openings for instability, yet the absence of public signals of organized dissent continues to anchor expectations of continuity.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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