Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that no coup attempt against Xi Jinping will occur before 2027, driven by the rapid dismissal of January 2026 rumors involving top PLA generals like Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli as routine anti-corruption purges rather than genuine disloyalty. Xi's decade-long consolidation of power, including military reshuffles to ensure loyalty, pervasive surveillance, and the Chinese Communist Party's historical aversion to coups since 1949, underpin this high confidence amid economic strains but no widespread unrest. Realistic shifts could stem from a catastrophic economic collapse, failed Taiwan operation, Xi's sudden health crisis, or elite factional fractures, though structural barriers remain formidable ahead of the 2027 Party Congress.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$126,951 Vol.
$126,951 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$126,951 Vol.
$126,951 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that no coup attempt against Xi Jinping will occur before 2027, driven by the rapid dismissal of January 2026 rumors involving top PLA generals like Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli as routine anti-corruption purges rather than genuine disloyalty. Xi's decade-long consolidation of power, including military reshuffles to ensure loyalty, pervasive surveillance, and the Chinese Communist Party's historical aversion to coups since 1949, underpin this high confidence amid economic strains but no widespread unrest. Realistic shifts could stem from a catastrophic economic collapse, failed Taiwan operation, Xi's sudden health crisis, or elite factional fractures, though structural barriers remain formidable ahead of the 2027 Party Congress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$126,951Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that no coup attempt against Xi Jinping will occur before 2027, driven by the rapid dismissal of January 2026 rumors involving top PLA generals like Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli as routine anti-corruption purges rather than genuine disloyalty. Xi's decade-long consolidation of power, including military reshuffles to ensure loyalty, pervasive surveillance, and the Chinese Communist Party's historical aversion to coups since 1949, underpin this high confidence amid economic strains but no widespread unrest. Realistic shifts could stem from a catastrophic economic collapse, failed Taiwan operation, Xi's sudden health crisis, or elite factional fractures, though structural barriers remain formidable ahead of the 2027 Party Congress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$126,951Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that no coup attempt against Xi Jinping will occur before 2027, driven by the rapid dismissal of January 2026 rumors involving top PLA generals like Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli as routine anti-corruption purges rather than genuine disloyalty. Xi's decade-long consolidation of power, including military reshuffles to ensure loyalty, pervasive surveillance, and the Chinese Communist Party's historical aversion to coups since 1949, underpin this high confidence amid economic strains but no widespread unrest. Realistic shifts could stem from a catastrophic economic collapse, failed Taiwan operation, Xi's sudden health crisis, or elite factional fractures, though structural barriers remain formidable ahead of the 2027 Party Congress.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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