Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April 2026 indicates global surface air temperature anomalies tracking around 1.2°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, driving trader consensus toward the 1.15–1.19°C outcome at 47.5% implied probability, with 1.20–1.24°C close behind at 29.5%. This follows March 2026's fourth-warmest reading of 1.48°C per Copernicus, but April shows moderation amid ENSO-neutral conditions (80% NOAA probability through June) and persistently high sea surface temperatures near records. Ongoing anthropogenic warming and minimal volcanic aerosol influence sustain elevated levels, though final NOAA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data, expected late May, could shift probabilities based on late-month observations and model refinements.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAprile 2026 Aumento della temperatura (ºC)
Aprile 2026 Aumento della temperatura (ºC)
1,15–1,19ºC 48%
1,20–1,24ºC 30%
1,25–1,29ºC 13%
1,10–1,14ºC 9%
$135,772 Vol.
$135,772 Vol.
10 mag 2026
<1,10ºC
3%
1,10–1,14ºC
9%
1,15–1,19ºC
48%
1,20–1,24ºC
30%
1,25–1,29ºC
13%
>1,29ºC
3%
1,15–1,19ºC 48%
1,20–1,24ºC 30%
1,25–1,29ºC 13%
1,10–1,14ºC 9%
$135,772 Vol.
$135,772 Vol.
10 mag 2026
<1,10ºC
$30,153 Vol.
3%
1,10–1,14ºC
$24,522 Vol.
9%
1,15–1,19ºC
$16,080 Vol.
48%
1,20–1,24ºC
$19,355 Vol.
30%
1,25–1,29ºC
$29,410 Vol.
13%
>1,29ºC
$16,253 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April 2026 indicates global surface air temperature anomalies tracking around 1.2°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, driving trader consensus toward the 1.15–1.19°C outcome at 47.5% implied probability, with 1.20–1.24°C close behind at 29.5%. This follows March 2026's fourth-warmest reading of 1.48°C per Copernicus, but April shows moderation amid ENSO-neutral conditions (80% NOAA probability through June) and persistently high sea surface temperatures near records. Ongoing anthropogenic warming and minimal volcanic aerosol influence sustain elevated levels, though final NOAA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data, expected late May, could shift probabilities based on late-month observations and model refinements.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercato aperto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$135,772Data di fine
10 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April 2026 indicates global surface air temperature anomalies tracking around 1.2°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, driving trader consensus toward the 1.15–1.19°C outcome at 47.5% implied probability, with 1.20–1.24°C close behind at 29.5%. This follows March 2026's fourth-warmest reading of 1.48°C per Copernicus, but April shows moderation amid ENSO-neutral conditions (80% NOAA probability through June) and persistently high sea surface temperatures near records. Ongoing anthropogenic warming and minimal volcanic aerosol influence sustain elevated levels, though final NOAA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data, expected late May, could shift probabilities based on late-month observations and model refinements.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$135,772Data di fine
10 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April 2026 indicates global surface air temperature anomalies tracking around 1.2°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, driving trader consensus toward the 1.15–1.19°C outcome at 47.5% implied probability, with 1.20–1.24°C close behind at 29.5%. This follows March 2026's fourth-warmest reading of 1.48°C per Copernicus, but April shows moderation amid ENSO-neutral conditions (80% NOAA probability through June) and persistently high sea surface temperatures near records. Ongoing anthropogenic warming and minimal volcanic aerosol influence sustain elevated levels, though final NOAA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data, expected late May, could shift probabilities based on late-month observations and model refinements.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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