Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on a 1.15–1.19ºC anomaly at 50.5% implied probability for April 2026 per NASA GISTEMP's 1951–1980 baseline, driven by the Copernicus Climate Change Service's April 10 bulletin reporting March 2026 at 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels—fourth-warmest on record—with near-record sea surface temperatures (second-highest for March) and record-low Arctic sea ice extent sustaining elevated global heat. NOAA's April 9 ENSO update favors neutral conditions through April–June (80% chance), muting extremes seen in prior El Niño Aprils while the Copernicus multi-system seasonal forecast projects above-normal temperatures into spring amid a likely El Niño emergence later. Model consensus and transitional Pacific dynamics position sub-1.20ºC outcomes as leaders, with resolution pending NASA's early-June GISTEMP release.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAprile 2026 Aumento della temperatura (ºC)
Aprile 2026 Aumento della temperatura (ºC)
1,15–1,19ºC 44%
1,20–1,24ºC 28%
1,10–1,14ºC 14%
1,25–1,29ºC 10%
$120,793 Vol.
$120,793 Vol.
10 mag 2026
<1,10ºC
3%
1,10–1,14ºC
14%
1,15–1,19ºC
44%
1,20–1,24ºC
28%
1,25–1,29ºC
10%
>1,29ºC
6%
1,15–1,19ºC 44%
1,20–1,24ºC 28%
1,10–1,14ºC 14%
1,25–1,29ºC 10%
$120,793 Vol.
$120,793 Vol.
10 mag 2026
<1,10ºC
$28,278 Vol.
3%
1,10–1,14ºC
$23,018 Vol.
14%
1,15–1,19ºC
$13,890 Vol.
44%
1,20–1,24ºC
$15,815 Vol.
28%
1,25–1,29ºC
$27,729 Vol.
10%
>1,29ºC
$12,065 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on a 1.15–1.19ºC anomaly at 50.5% implied probability for April 2026 per NASA GISTEMP's 1951–1980 baseline, driven by the Copernicus Climate Change Service's April 10 bulletin reporting March 2026 at 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels—fourth-warmest on record—with near-record sea surface temperatures (second-highest for March) and record-low Arctic sea ice extent sustaining elevated global heat. NOAA's April 9 ENSO update favors neutral conditions through April–June (80% chance), muting extremes seen in prior El Niño Aprils while the Copernicus multi-system seasonal forecast projects above-normal temperatures into spring amid a likely El Niño emergence later. Model consensus and transitional Pacific dynamics position sub-1.20ºC outcomes as leaders, with resolution pending NASA's early-June GISTEMP release.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercato aperto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$120,793Data di fine
10 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on a 1.15–1.19ºC anomaly at 50.5% implied probability for April 2026 per NASA GISTEMP's 1951–1980 baseline, driven by the Copernicus Climate Change Service's April 10 bulletin reporting March 2026 at 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels—fourth-warmest on record—with near-record sea surface temperatures (second-highest for March) and record-low Arctic sea ice extent sustaining elevated global heat. NOAA's April 9 ENSO update favors neutral conditions through April–June (80% chance), muting extremes seen in prior El Niño Aprils while the Copernicus multi-system seasonal forecast projects above-normal temperatures into spring amid a likely El Niño emergence later. Model consensus and transitional Pacific dynamics position sub-1.20ºC outcomes as leaders, with resolution pending NASA's early-June GISTEMP release.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$120,793Data di fine
10 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on a 1.15–1.19ºC anomaly at 50.5% implied probability for April 2026 per NASA GISTEMP's 1951–1980 baseline, driven by the Copernicus Climate Change Service's April 10 bulletin reporting March 2026 at 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels—fourth-warmest on record—with near-record sea surface temperatures (second-highest for March) and record-low Arctic sea ice extent sustaining elevated global heat. NOAA's April 9 ENSO update favors neutral conditions through April–June (80% chance), muting extremes seen in prior El Niño Aprils while the Copernicus multi-system seasonal forecast projects above-normal temperatures into spring amid a likely El Niño emergence later. Model consensus and transitional Pacific dynamics position sub-1.20ºC outcomes as leaders, with resolution pending NASA's early-June GISTEMP release.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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