NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information released its April 2026 global climate report around May 10, confirming the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index anomaly at 1.17°C above the 1901-2000 twentieth-century average—firmly within the 1.15–1.19ºC bin—driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability on this outcome as the primary resolution source. This aligns with Copernicus ERA5 data showing a +1.43°C anomaly relative to the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline and +0.52°C above 1991-2020, reflecting second-highest sea surface temperatures amid an emerging El Niño in the equatorial Pacific. Datasets differ due to measurement methodologies (land stations plus ocean buoys vs. reanalysis models), but cross-verification reinforces certainty. Realistic challenges include rare post-release revisions by NOAA, though final figures exhibit high stability; no major updates expected.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAprile 2026 Aumento della temperatura (ºC)
Aprile 2026 Aumento della temperatura (ºC)
1,15–1,19ºC 100.0%
<1,10ºC <1%
1,10–1,14ºC <1%
1,20–1,24ºC <1%
$383,569 Vol.
$383,569 Vol.
10 mag 2026
<1,10ºC
No
1,10–1,14ºC
No
1,15–1,19ºC
Sì
1,20–1,24ºC
No
1,25–1,29ºC
No
>1,29ºC
No
1,15–1,19ºC 100.0%
<1,10ºC <1%
1,10–1,14ºC <1%
1,20–1,24ºC <1%
$383,569 Vol.
$383,569 Vol.
10 mag 2026
<1,10ºC
$64,037 Vol.
No
1,10–1,14ºC
$65,723 Vol.
No
1,15–1,19ºC
$56,227 Vol.
Sì
1,20–1,24ºC
$79,792 Vol.
No
1,25–1,29ºC
$65,973 Vol.
No
>1,29ºC
$51,817 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information released its April 2026 global climate report around May 10, confirming the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index anomaly at 1.17°C above the 1901-2000 twentieth-century average—firmly within the 1.15–1.19ºC bin—driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability on this outcome as the primary resolution source. This aligns with Copernicus ERA5 data showing a +1.43°C anomaly relative to the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline and +0.52°C above 1991-2020, reflecting second-highest sea surface temperatures amid an emerging El Niño in the equatorial Pacific. Datasets differ due to measurement methodologies (land stations plus ocean buoys vs. reanalysis models), but cross-verification reinforces certainty. Realistic challenges include rare post-release revisions by NOAA, though final figures exhibit high stability; no major updates expected.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercato aperto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$383,569Data di fine
10 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information released its April 2026 global climate report around May 10, confirming the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index anomaly at 1.17°C above the 1901-2000 twentieth-century average—firmly within the 1.15–1.19ºC bin—driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability on this outcome as the primary resolution source. This aligns with Copernicus ERA5 data showing a +1.43°C anomaly relative to the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline and +0.52°C above 1991-2020, reflecting second-highest sea surface temperatures amid an emerging El Niño in the equatorial Pacific. Datasets differ due to measurement methodologies (land stations plus ocean buoys vs. reanalysis models), but cross-verification reinforces certainty. Realistic challenges include rare post-release revisions by NOAA, though final figures exhibit high stability; no major updates expected.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$383,569Data di fine
10 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information released its April 2026 global climate report around May 10, confirming the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index anomaly at 1.17°C above the 1901-2000 twentieth-century average—firmly within the 1.15–1.19ºC bin—driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability on this outcome as the primary resolution source. This aligns with Copernicus ERA5 data showing a +1.43°C anomaly relative to the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline and +0.52°C above 1991-2020, reflecting second-highest sea surface temperatures amid an emerging El Niño in the equatorial Pacific. Datasets differ due to measurement methodologies (land stations plus ocean buoys vs. reanalysis models), but cross-verification reinforces certainty. Realistic challenges include rare post-release revisions by NOAA, though final figures exhibit high stability; no major updates expected.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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