Preliminary data from Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis and early Berkeley Earth estimates place April 2026's global mean surface air temperature anomaly at roughly 1.17°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, anchoring trader consensus to a 95.7% implied probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC outcome on Polymarket. This reflects the second-warmest April sea surface temperatures on record (21.08°C average), per Copernicus marine bulletin released late April, amid ENSO-neutral conditions following La Niña's fade, which moderated March's 1.5–1.6°C peak. Historical April analogs and reanalysis consensus support this positioning, ranking it among the top five warmest. Realistic challenges include final NASA GISTEMP v4 adjustments for late Arctic data, potentially nudging 0.03–0.05°C higher into 1.20–1.24ºC if amplification exceeds estimates; NOAA's mid-May report could confirm or refine.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAprile 2026 Aumento della temperatura (ºC)
Aprile 2026 Aumento della temperatura (ºC)
1,15–1,19ºC 95.7%
1,20–1,24ºC 2.6%
1,10–1,14ºC 1.6%
>1,29ºC <1%
$332,384 Vol.
$332,384 Vol.
10 mag 2026
<1,10ºC
<1%
1,10–1,14ºC
2%
1,15–1,19ºC
96%
1,20–1,24ºC
3%
1,25–1,29ºC
<1%
>1,29ºC
1%
1,15–1,19ºC 95.7%
1,20–1,24ºC 2.6%
1,10–1,14ºC 1.6%
>1,29ºC <1%
$332,384 Vol.
$332,384 Vol.
10 mag 2026
<1,10ºC
$54,938 Vol.
<1%
1,10–1,14ºC
$61,450 Vol.
2%
1,15–1,19ºC
$47,150 Vol.
96%
1,20–1,24ºC
$66,845 Vol.
3%
1,25–1,29ºC
$57,462 Vol.
<1%
>1,29ºC
$44,538 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary data from Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis and early Berkeley Earth estimates place April 2026's global mean surface air temperature anomaly at roughly 1.17°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, anchoring trader consensus to a 95.7% implied probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC outcome on Polymarket. This reflects the second-warmest April sea surface temperatures on record (21.08°C average), per Copernicus marine bulletin released late April, amid ENSO-neutral conditions following La Niña's fade, which moderated March's 1.5–1.6°C peak. Historical April analogs and reanalysis consensus support this positioning, ranking it among the top five warmest. Realistic challenges include final NASA GISTEMP v4 adjustments for late Arctic data, potentially nudging 0.03–0.05°C higher into 1.20–1.24ºC if amplification exceeds estimates; NOAA's mid-May report could confirm or refine.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercato aperto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$332,384Data di fine
10 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary data from Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis and early Berkeley Earth estimates place April 2026's global mean surface air temperature anomaly at roughly 1.17°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, anchoring trader consensus to a 95.7% implied probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC outcome on Polymarket. This reflects the second-warmest April sea surface temperatures on record (21.08°C average), per Copernicus marine bulletin released late April, amid ENSO-neutral conditions following La Niña's fade, which moderated March's 1.5–1.6°C peak. Historical April analogs and reanalysis consensus support this positioning, ranking it among the top five warmest. Realistic challenges include final NASA GISTEMP v4 adjustments for late Arctic data, potentially nudging 0.03–0.05°C higher into 1.20–1.24ºC if amplification exceeds estimates; NOAA's mid-May report could confirm or refine.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$332,384Data di fine
10 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary data from Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis and early Berkeley Earth estimates place April 2026's global mean surface air temperature anomaly at roughly 1.17°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, anchoring trader consensus to a 95.7% implied probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC outcome on Polymarket. This reflects the second-warmest April sea surface temperatures on record (21.08°C average), per Copernicus marine bulletin released late April, amid ENSO-neutral conditions following La Niña's fade, which moderated March's 1.5–1.6°C peak. Historical April analogs and reanalysis consensus support this positioning, ranking it among the top five warmest. Realistic challenges include final NASA GISTEMP v4 adjustments for late Arctic data, potentially nudging 0.03–0.05°C higher into 1.20–1.24ºC if amplification exceeds estimates; NOAA's mid-May report could confirm or refine.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti