Omar Aziz leads the Amazonas gubernatorial runoff market at 87.5% implied probability following his first-round victory on October 4, 2026, where he secured 40.63% of valid votes against Professora Maria do Carmo’s 24.49%. Aziz won 53 of 62 municipalities, drawing broad interior support and benefiting from a large coalition that includes PSD, MDB, Republicanos, and PT-aligned parties, plus his prior service as governor and senator. Maria do Carmo, the PL candidate in her first statewide bid, performed strongest in Manaus but trails significantly in overall vote share and geographic reach. The October 25 runoff timing and Aziz’s established political network have shaped trader consensus around his frontrunner status, while low odds for eliminated candidates like Roberto Cidade reflect their first-round elimination.