Recent softer-than-expected August 2026 IPCA inflation at 4.22% year-over-year, with a 0.32% monthly decline, has reinforced expectations for another 25-basis-point Selic cut at the Banco Central do Brasil's early November Copom meeting, following the anticipated September reduction to 13.75%. Cooling price pressures, combined with subdued economic momentum and still-elevated real rates, underpin the 57% market-implied probability for a quarter-point easing, while the 36% odds of no change reflect caution over fiscal stimulus risks, labor market resilience, and potential post-election policy shifts in October. Traders price these outcomes via real capital commitments, consistent with forward curves showing the Selic near 13.50% by year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 15-16 decision and subsequent inflation releases that could shift the balance between measured easing and pauses.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoRiduzione di 25 punti base 56%
Nessuna modifica 36%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base 6.3%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base <1%
$15,253 Vol.
$15,253 Vol.
4 nov 2026
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
<1%
Aumento di 25 punti base
<1%
Nessuna modifica
36%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
56%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
6%
Riduzione di 25 punti base 56%
Nessuna modifica 36%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base 6.3%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base <1%
$15,253 Vol.
$15,253 Vol.
4 nov 2026
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
$1,313 Vol.
<1%
Aumento di 25 punti base
$1,771 Vol.
<1%
Nessuna modifica
$7,597 Vol.
36%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
$2,585 Vol.
56%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
$1,987 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent softer-than-expected August 2026 IPCA inflation at 4.22% year-over-year, with a 0.32% monthly decline, has reinforced expectations for another 25-basis-point Selic cut at the Banco Central do Brasil's early November Copom meeting, following the anticipated September reduction to 13.75%. Cooling price pressures, combined with subdued economic momentum and still-elevated real rates, underpin the 57% market-implied probability for a quarter-point easing, while the 36% odds of no change reflect caution over fiscal stimulus risks, labor market resilience, and potential post-election policy shifts in October. Traders price these outcomes via real capital commitments, consistent with forward curves showing the Selic near 13.50% by year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 15-16 decision and subsequent inflation releases that could shift the balance between measured easing and pauses.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 4, 2026, 6:30 PM ET
Volume
$15,253Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 4, 2026, 6:30 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent softer-than-expected August 2026 IPCA inflation at 4.22% year-over-year, with a 0.32% monthly decline, has reinforced expectations for another 25-basis-point Selic cut at the Banco Central do Brasil's early November Copom meeting, following the anticipated September reduction to 13.75%. Cooling price pressures, combined with subdued economic momentum and still-elevated real rates, underpin the 57% market-implied probability for a quarter-point easing, while the 36% odds of no change reflect caution over fiscal stimulus risks, labor market resilience, and potential post-election policy shifts in October. Traders price these outcomes via real capital commitments, consistent with forward curves showing the Selic near 13.50% by year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 15-16 decision and subsequent inflation releases that could shift the balance between measured easing and pauses.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$15,253Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 4, 2026, 6:30 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent softer-than-expected August 2026 IPCA inflation at 4.22% year-over-year, with a 0.32% monthly decline, has reinforced expectations for another 25-basis-point Selic cut at the Banco Central do Brasil's early November Copom meeting, following the anticipated September reduction to 13.75%. Cooling price pressures, combined with subdued economic momentum and still-elevated real rates, underpin the 57% market-implied probability for a quarter-point easing, while the 36% odds of no change reflect caution over fiscal stimulus risks, labor market resilience, and potential post-election policy shifts in October. Traders price these outcomes via real capital commitments, consistent with forward curves showing the Selic near 13.50% by year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 15-16 decision and subsequent inflation releases that could shift the balance between measured easing and pauses.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
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La Banca Centrale della Colombia non apporterà alcuna modifica al tasso di interesse di politica monetaria nella riunione di ottobre?
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