Polymarket traders price a 94.2% implied probability of positive U.S. GDP growth in 2026, driven by robust forecasts from the Federal Reserve's March Summary of Economic Projections (median 2.4% fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter), Philadelphia Fed's 2.5% annual-average expectation, and nowcasts signaling Q1 acceleration to 2.3% (New York Fed) or 2.6% despite Q4 2025's slowdown to 0.5% annualized. Resilient consumer spending, stable unemployment around 4%, and solid corporate profits bolster this skin-in-the-game consensus amid moderating inflation. Key risks include tariff-induced cost pressures, oil prices exceeding $140 per barrel crimping demand, or labor market deterioration forcing restrictive monetary policy, though these remain low-probability scenarios per current data. Upcoming Q1 GDP release (late April) and May FOMC could refine expectations.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
$21,572 Vol.
$21,572 Vol.
Jan 29, 2027
$21,572 Vol.
$21,572 Vol.
Jan 29, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Polymarket traders price a 94.2% implied probability of positive U.S. GDP growth in 2026, driven by robust forecasts from the Federal Reserve's March Summary of Economic Projections (median 2.4% fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter), Philadelphia Fed's 2.5% annual-average expectation, and nowcasts signaling Q1 acceleration to 2.3% (New York Fed) or 2.6% despite Q4 2025's slowdown to 0.5% annualized. Resilient consumer spending, stable unemployment around 4%, and solid corporate profits bolster this skin-in-the-game consensus amid moderating inflation. Key risks include tariff-induced cost pressures, oil prices exceeding $140 per barrel crimping demand, or labor market deterioration forcing restrictive monetary policy, though these remain low-probability scenarios per current data. Upcoming Q1 GDP release (late April) and May FOMC could refine expectations.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$21,572Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 29, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Polymarket traders price a 94.2% implied probability of positive U.S. GDP growth in 2026, driven by robust forecasts from the Federal Reserve's March Summary of Economic Projections (median 2.4% fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter), Philadelphia Fed's 2.5% annual-average expectation, and nowcasts signaling Q1 acceleration to 2.3% (New York Fed) or 2.6% despite Q4 2025's slowdown to 0.5% annualized. Resilient consumer spending, stable unemployment around 4%, and solid corporate profits bolster this skin-in-the-game consensus amid moderating inflation. Key risks include tariff-induced cost pressures, oil prices exceeding $140 per barrel crimping demand, or labor market deterioration forcing restrictive monetary policy, though these remain low-probability scenarios per current data. Upcoming Q1 GDP release (late April) and May FOMC could refine expectations.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$21,572Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 29, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a 94.2% implied probability of positive U.S. GDP growth in 2026, driven by robust forecasts from the Federal Reserve's March Summary of Economic Projections (median 2.4% fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter), Philadelphia Fed's 2.5% annual-average expectation, and nowcasts signaling Q1 acceleration to 2.3% (New York Fed) or 2.6% despite Q4 2025's slowdown to 0.5% annualized. Resilient consumer spending, stable unemployment around 4%, and solid corporate profits bolster this skin-in-the-game consensus amid moderating inflation. Key risks include tariff-induced cost pressures, oil prices exceeding $140 per barrel crimping demand, or labor market deterioration forcing restrictive monetary policy, though these remain low-probability scenarios per current data. Upcoming Q1 GDP release (late April) and May FOMC could refine expectations.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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