xAI's rapid iteration on its Grok large language model series continues to shape trader sentiment around Grok 4.4, with the May 5 release of the 0.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.3 on the xAI API marking the latest public milestone. Elon Musk's May 17 update highlighted completion of training for a 1.5-trillion-parameter successor, now in supplemental training and expected in three to four weeks, suggesting the originally planned early-May 1-trillion-parameter Grok 4.4 may have been bypassed or merged into this larger version. This pace reflects xAI's strategy of scaling compute on Colossus while competing directly with other frontier labs on agentic capabilities and benchmarks. Key upcoming catalysts include any confirmation of the next model's parameter count, public availability, or integration features that could clarify resolution criteria for release timelines.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiBARU
Jun 30, 2026
May 31
45%
June 15
49%
June 30
50%
$20 Vol.
May 31
$20 Vol.
45%
June 15
$0 Vol.
49%
June 30
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's rapid iteration on its Grok large language model series continues to shape trader sentiment around Grok 4.4, with the May 5 release of the 0.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.3 on the xAI API marking the latest public milestone. Elon Musk's May 17 update highlighted completion of training for a 1.5-trillion-parameter successor, now in supplemental training and expected in three to four weeks, suggesting the originally planned early-May 1-trillion-parameter Grok 4.4 may have been bypassed or merged into this larger version. This pace reflects xAI's strategy of scaling compute on Colossus while competing directly with other frontier labs on agentic capabilities and benchmarks. Key upcoming catalysts include any confirmation of the next model's parameter count, public availability, or integration features that could clarify resolution criteria for release timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Volume
$20Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's rapid iteration on its Grok large language model series continues to shape trader sentiment around Grok 4.4, with the May 5 release of the 0.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.3 on the xAI API marking the latest public milestone. Elon Musk's May 17 update highlighted completion of training for a 1.5-trillion-parameter successor, now in supplemental training and expected in three to four weeks, suggesting the originally planned early-May 1-trillion-parameter Grok 4.4 may have been bypassed or merged into this larger version. This pace reflects xAI's strategy of scaling compute on Colossus while competing directly with other frontier labs on agentic capabilities and benchmarks. Key upcoming catalysts include any confirmation of the next model's parameter count, public availability, or integration features that could clarify resolution criteria for release timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$20Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...xAI's rapid iteration on its Grok large language model series continues to shape trader sentiment around Grok 4.4, with the May 5 release of the 0.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.3 on the xAI API marking the latest public milestone. Elon Musk's May 17 update highlighted completion of training for a 1.5-trillion-parameter successor, now in supplemental training and expected in three to four weeks, suggesting the originally planned early-May 1-trillion-parameter Grok 4.4 may have been bypassed or merged into this larger version. This pace reflects xAI's strategy of scaling compute on Colossus while competing directly with other frontier labs on agentic capabilities and benchmarks. Key upcoming catalysts include any confirmation of the next model's parameter count, public availability, or integration features that could clarify resolution criteria for release timelines.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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