The stalled implementation of the US-brokered Gaza ceasefire plan, including the International Stabilization Force (ISF) under the Board of Peace, drives trader assessments of foreign intervention odds near even. Despite pledges from countries including Indonesia, Morocco, Kosovo, and Albania, and Israeli cabinet approval for future entry, no foreign personnel have deployed inside Gaza as of mid-October 2026. Sequencing disputes persist over Hamas disarmament and Israeli withdrawal, with the technocratic Palestinian administration blocked from entry and reconstruction stalled. An imminent UN Security Council vote on a US draft resolution authorizing the ISF could influence timelines, alongside Israeli elections and competing priorities such as regional tensions. These factors keep deployment prospects contested through year-end.