Ongoing geopolitical supply disruptions tied to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to anchor trader sentiment for June WTI crude settlement, driving the 69.5% implied probability on a close above $84. Recent inventory draws and persistent Middle East production outages have kept futures near $106 per barrel as of May 18, with backwardation in the curve reflecting near-term tightness despite intermittent peace-talk optimism that triggered sharp pullbacks earlier in the month. Market participants price in sustained risk premiums from limited tanker traffic and OECD stock declines, outweighing longer-term surplus forecasts from OPEC+ quota adjustments. Key upcoming catalysts include further U.S.-Iran negotiations and May inventory releases that could shift the balance between supply-constraint support and demand-weakness concerns.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWhat will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?
>$84 70%
$77-$84 19%
$70-$77 8.1%
$63-$70 2.6%
$161,308 Vol.
$161,308 Vol.
<$42
1%
$42-$49
<1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
2%
$63-$70
3%
$70-$77
8%
$77-$84
19%
>$84
70%
>$84 70%
$77-$84 19%
$70-$77 8.1%
$63-$70 2.6%
$161,308 Vol.
$161,308 Vol.
<$42
1%
$42-$49
<1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
2%
$63-$70
3%
$70-$77
8%
$77-$84
19%
>$84
70%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Ongoing geopolitical supply disruptions tied to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to anchor trader sentiment for June WTI crude settlement, driving the 69.5% implied probability on a close above $84. Recent inventory draws and persistent Middle East production outages have kept futures near $106 per barrel as of May 18, with backwardation in the curve reflecting near-term tightness despite intermittent peace-talk optimism that triggered sharp pullbacks earlier in the month. Market participants price in sustained risk premiums from limited tanker traffic and OECD stock declines, outweighing longer-term surplus forecasts from OPEC+ quota adjustments. Key upcoming catalysts include further U.S.-Iran negotiations and May inventory releases that could shift the balance between supply-constraint support and demand-weakness concerns.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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