Persistent supply disruptions from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid U.S.-Iran tensions have tightened global crude balances, driving WTI prices near $97 per barrel and supporting the 63.5% market-implied probability for a June settlement above $84. Record inventory draws of roughly 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter, coupled with over 10 million barrels per day of Middle East production shut in, sustain elevated levels despite partial normalization signals for June flows. Analyst forecasts from the EIA and others project Brent averages near $106 through mid-year before easing later in 2026, while OPEC+ quota adjustments and demand revisions add volatility. Traders price in the risk premium from unresolved geopolitical risks ahead of the June 7 OPEC meeting and potential ceasefire developments.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWhat will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?
>$84 64%
$77-$84 21%
$70-$77 7.9%
$63-$70 3.5%
$198,250 Vol.
$198,250 Vol.
<$42
<1%
$42-$49
<1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
4%
$70-$77
8%
$77-$84
21%
>$84
64%
>$84 64%
$77-$84 21%
$70-$77 7.9%
$63-$70 3.5%
$198,250 Vol.
$198,250 Vol.
<$42
<1%
$42-$49
<1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
4%
$70-$77
8%
$77-$84
21%
>$84
64%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Persistent supply disruptions from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid U.S.-Iran tensions have tightened global crude balances, driving WTI prices near $97 per barrel and supporting the 63.5% market-implied probability for a June settlement above $84. Record inventory draws of roughly 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter, coupled with over 10 million barrels per day of Middle East production shut in, sustain elevated levels despite partial normalization signals for June flows. Analyst forecasts from the EIA and others project Brent averages near $106 through mid-year before easing later in 2026, while OPEC+ quota adjustments and demand revisions add volatility. Traders price in the risk premium from unresolved geopolitical risks ahead of the June 7 OPEC meeting and potential ceasefire developments.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan