Escalating U.S.-Iran military exchanges since February 2026, including targeted strikes on military assets at Kharg Island and nearby sites without disrupting oil terminals or establishing alternative control, represent the dominant driver of trader positioning in this market. Kharg handles approximately 90% of Iran's crude exports at loadings up to several million barrels per day, directly linking any sovereignty shift to Brent crude volatility, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and global supply risks that have recently pushed prices toward $97 per barrel. Market-implied odds reflect the low probability of full territorial transfer by the September 30 resolution date, consistent with Iran's fortified defenses, ongoing naval presence, and recent interim navigation discussions with Oman. Upcoming catalysts include potential further U.S. pressure on shipping corridors or diplomatic de-escalation that could alter energy flow expectations without changing island governance.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$144,792 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
2%
$144,792 Vol.
September 30
$92,015 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Iran military exchanges since February 2026, including targeted strikes on military assets at Kharg Island and nearby sites without disrupting oil terminals or establishing alternative control, represent the dominant driver of trader positioning in this market. Kharg handles approximately 90% of Iran's crude exports at loadings up to several million barrels per day, directly linking any sovereignty shift to Brent crude volatility, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and global supply risks that have recently pushed prices toward $97 per barrel. Market-implied odds reflect the low probability of full territorial transfer by the September 30 resolution date, consistent with Iran's fortified defenses, ongoing naval presence, and recent interim navigation discussions with Oman. Upcoming catalysts include potential further U.S. pressure on shipping corridors or diplomatic de-escalation that could alter energy flow expectations without changing island governance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$144,792Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Iran military exchanges since February 2026, including targeted strikes on military assets at Kharg Island and nearby sites without disrupting oil terminals or establishing alternative control, represent the dominant driver of trader positioning in this market. Kharg handles approximately 90% of Iran's crude exports at loadings up to several million barrels per day, directly linking any sovereignty shift to Brent crude volatility, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and global supply risks that have recently pushed prices toward $97 per barrel. Market-implied odds reflect the low probability of full territorial transfer by the September 30 resolution date, consistent with Iran's fortified defenses, ongoing naval presence, and recent interim navigation discussions with Oman. Upcoming catalysts include potential further U.S. pressure on shipping corridors or diplomatic de-escalation that could alter energy flow expectations without changing island governance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$144,792Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating U.S.-Iran military exchanges since February 2026, including targeted strikes on military assets at Kharg Island and nearby sites without disrupting oil terminals or establishing alternative control, represent the dominant driver of trader positioning in this market. Kharg handles approximately 90% of Iran's crude exports at loadings up to several million barrels per day, directly linking any sovereignty shift to Brent crude volatility, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and global supply risks that have recently pushed prices toward $97 per barrel. Market-implied odds reflect the low probability of full territorial transfer by the September 30 resolution date, consistent with Iran's fortified defenses, ongoing naval presence, and recent interim navigation discussions with Oman. Upcoming catalysts include potential further U.S. pressure on shipping corridors or diplomatic de-escalation that could alter energy flow expectations without changing island governance.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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