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Pemilihan Umum·Primer

CA-04 Primary Winners

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Pemilihan Umum·Primer

CA-04 Primary Winners

$20,768 Vol.

Jun 2, 2026
Polymarket

$20,768 Vol.

Polymarket

Mike Thompson

$6,502 Vol.

99%

Eric Jones

$4,052 Vol.

95%

John Wesley Tyler

$618 Vol.

33%

Trevor Merrell

$6,288 Vol.

15%

Heath Fulkerson

$265 Vol.

9%

Sharon Brown

$1,605 Vol.

6%

Mandy Ghusar

$728 Vol.

6%

Laurie MacKenzie

$710 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) leads the June 2 top-two primary for California's 4th Congressional District, bolstered by strong fundraising exceeding $2.5 million cash-on-hand as of late March and endorsement from the Democratic Party of California, amid a redrawn district via Proposition 50 that maintains a solid Democratic lean (D+17 PVI). Challenger Eric Jones (D), with $1.4 million raised and backing from Our Revolution, positions as a generational alternative focused on affordability and anti-corporate pledges. A fragmented Republican field of six candidates and one independent risks vote-splitting, potentially advancing both Democrats as in prior cycles. No public primary polls exist, but ballots mail May 4, with early voting underway soon after, heightening focus on turnout in this safe Democratic seat.

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$20,768
Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 2, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) leads the June 2 top-two primary for California's 4th Congressional District, bolstered by strong fundraising exceeding $2.5 million cash-on-hand as of late March and endorsement from the Democratic Party of California, amid a redrawn district via Proposition 50 that maintains a solid Democratic lean (D+17 PVI). Challenger Eric Jones (D), with $1.4 million raised and backing from Our Revolution, positions as a generational alternative focused on affordability and anti-corporate pledges. A fragmented Republican field of six candidates and one independent risks vote-splitting, potentially advancing both Democrats as in prior cycles. No public primary polls exist, but ballots mail May 4, with early voting underway soon after, heightening focus on turnout in this safe Democratic seat.

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$20,768
Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 2, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"CA-04 Primary Winners" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 8 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Mike Thompson" di 99%, diikuti oleh "Eric Jones" di 95%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 99¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 99% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "CA-04 Primary Winners" telah menghasilkan $20.8K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Feb 26, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "CA-04 Primary Winners," jelajahi 8 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "CA-04 Primary Winners" adalah "Mike Thompson" di 99%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 99% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Eric Jones" di 95%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "CA-04 Primary Winners" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.