Trader consensus prices a Democratic blue wave—defined as regaining control of both the House and Senate—at 77%, driven by persistent leads in generic ballot polling averaging Democrats +8 to +10 points in recent surveys like Emerson's April national poll showing a 10-point edge. Historical midterm patterns amplify this, with the president's party averaging 28 House seat losses amid President Trump's sub-40% approval ratings, high gas prices, and perceived failures in Iran military actions fueling voter discontent. A 14-point Democratic enthusiasm gap, record GOP retirements, and special election overperformance bolster odds, though aggressive Republican redistricting narrows toss-up districts to under 20, heightening focus on turnout and swing states ahead of November primaries.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$41,498 Vol.
$41,498 Vol.
$41,498 Vol.
$41,498 Vol.
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a Democratic blue wave—defined as regaining control of both the House and Senate—at 77%, driven by persistent leads in generic ballot polling averaging Democrats +8 to +10 points in recent surveys like Emerson's April national poll showing a 10-point edge. Historical midterm patterns amplify this, with the president's party averaging 28 House seat losses amid President Trump's sub-40% approval ratings, high gas prices, and perceived failures in Iran military actions fueling voter discontent. A 14-point Democratic enthusiasm gap, record GOP retirements, and special election overperformance bolster odds, though aggressive Republican redistricting narrows toss-up districts to under 20, heightening focus on turnout and swing states ahead of November primaries.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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