Xi Jinping’s entrenched control over the Chinese Communist Party and military underpins the 97% trader consensus against his removal before 2027. Recent military purges, including the October 2026 expulsion of senior Central Military Commission figures, have further consolidated his authority while sidelining potential rivals ahead of the 21st Party Congress. At age 73, Xi continues active public duties, including the September 2026 U.S. summit and October National Day events, despite recurring unverified health rumors. No designated successor or visible internal challenge has emerged, and institutional norms favor continuity through his fourth term. Abrupt health decline or an unforeseen elite realignment remain the primary low-probability risks that could still alter outcomes before the congress.
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