Trader consensus prices "No" at 99.1% for the Iranian regime falling by April 30, reflecting the resilience of its security forces amid ongoing 2025–2026 protests sparked by economic collapse, currency devaluation, and fallout from the prior year's Twelve-Day War. Recent crackdowns—including executions of protesters in early April and pro-regime rallies in Tehran on April 13—have quelled unrest, while IRGC loyalty holds firm despite external pressures like U.S. naval actions in the Strait of Hormuz and Trump's April 18 briefing on ceasefire talks. With just 11 days left, no mass defections or leadership vacuum has emerged; sudden escalation in airstrikes, a Supreme Leader health crisis, or widespread military mutiny could still shift dynamics, though historical patterns favor regime survival through suppression.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या 30 अप्रैल तक ईरानी शासन गिर जाएगा?
क्या 30 अप्रैल तक ईरानी शासन गिर जाएगा?
हाँ
$34,722,795 वॉल्यूम
$34,722,795 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
हाँ
$34,722,795 वॉल्यूम
$34,722,795 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 99.1% for the Iranian regime falling by April 30, reflecting the resilience of its security forces amid ongoing 2025–2026 protests sparked by economic collapse, currency devaluation, and fallout from the prior year's Twelve-Day War. Recent crackdowns—including executions of protesters in early April and pro-regime rallies in Tehran on April 13—have quelled unrest, while IRGC loyalty holds firm despite external pressures like U.S. naval actions in the Strait of Hormuz and Trump's April 18 briefing on ceasefire talks. With just 11 days left, no mass defections or leadership vacuum has emerged; sudden escalation in airstrikes, a Supreme Leader health crisis, or widespread military mutiny could still shift dynamics, though historical patterns favor regime survival through suppression.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$34,722,795समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 99.1% for the Iranian regime falling by April 30, reflecting the resilience of its security forces amid ongoing 2025–2026 protests sparked by economic collapse, currency devaluation, and fallout from the prior year's Twelve-Day War. Recent crackdowns—including executions of protesters in early April and pro-regime rallies in Tehran on April 13—have quelled unrest, while IRGC loyalty holds firm despite external pressures like U.S. naval actions in the Strait of Hormuz and Trump's April 18 briefing on ceasefire talks. With just 11 days left, no mass defections or leadership vacuum has emerged; sudden escalation in airstrikes, a Supreme Leader health crisis, or widespread military mutiny could still shift dynamics, though historical patterns favor regime survival through suppression.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$34,726,858समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 99.1% for the Iranian regime falling by April 30, reflecting the resilience of its security forces amid ongoing 2025–2026 protests sparked by economic collapse, currency devaluation, and fallout from the prior year's Twelve-Day War. Recent crackdowns—including executions of protesters in early April and pro-regime rallies in Tehran on April 13—have quelled unrest, while IRGC loyalty holds firm despite external pressures like U.S. naval actions in the Strait of Hormuz and Trump's April 18 briefing on ceasefire talks. With just 11 days left, no mass defections or leadership vacuum has emerged; sudden escalation in airstrikes, a Supreme Leader health crisis, or widespread military mutiny could still shift dynamics, though historical patterns favor regime survival through suppression.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न