GameStop’s rejected $56 billion unsolicited bid for eBay in May 2026 remains the dominant factor anchoring market-implied odds of no acquisition near 94.5%. eBay’s board dismissed the cash-and-stock proposal at $125 per share as neither credible nor attractive, citing financing risks and execution challenges given GameStop’s roughly $13 billion market capitalization versus eBay’s larger scale. Although GameStop accumulated a 9.8% stake by July and raised authorized shares to support potential maneuvers, no binding offer or proxy contest has advanced amid GameStop’s focus on its improving EBITDA margins, collectibles revenue growth to 45% of sales, and $5.4 billion cash position. Traders price in these structural barriers while noting that a revised offer or successful proxy campaign before key deadlines could still alter the outcome.