Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95.5% implied probability to no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest tropical weather discussion on April 19, which notes minimal synoptic conditions for development—no disturbances, a confined monsoon trough over Africa, and scattered convection only along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)—with routine Tropical Weather Outlooks resuming May 15. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the main development region (MDR) remain below the 26.5°C threshold for sustained hurricane genesis, exacerbated by typical springtime vertical wind shear. Historical data underscores rarity, with no Atlantic hurricanes before June 1 in recent decades and only isolated cases like 1951's Hurricane Able since 1851. Realistic shifts could involve an unforeseen tropical wave rapidly intensifying under anomalous low shear, though current model consensus shows none.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या 31 मई तक तूफ़ान बन जाएगा?
क्या 31 मई तक तूफ़ान बन जाएगा?
हाँ
$42,767 वॉल्यूम
$42,767 वॉल्यूम
31 मई, 2026
हाँ
$42,767 वॉल्यूम
$42,767 वॉल्यूम
31 मई, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95.5% implied probability to no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest tropical weather discussion on April 19, which notes minimal synoptic conditions for development—no disturbances, a confined monsoon trough over Africa, and scattered convection only along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)—with routine Tropical Weather Outlooks resuming May 15. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the main development region (MDR) remain below the 26.5°C threshold for sustained hurricane genesis, exacerbated by typical springtime vertical wind shear. Historical data underscores rarity, with no Atlantic hurricanes before June 1 in recent decades and only isolated cases like 1951's Hurricane Able since 1851. Realistic shifts could involve an unforeseen tropical wave rapidly intensifying under anomalous low shear, though current model consensus shows none.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$42,767समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95.5% implied probability to no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest tropical weather discussion on April 19, which notes minimal synoptic conditions for development—no disturbances, a confined monsoon trough over Africa, and scattered convection only along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)—with routine Tropical Weather Outlooks resuming May 15. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the main development region (MDR) remain below the 26.5°C threshold for sustained hurricane genesis, exacerbated by typical springtime vertical wind shear. Historical data underscores rarity, with no Atlantic hurricanes before June 1 in recent decades and only isolated cases like 1951's Hurricane Able since 1851. Realistic shifts could involve an unforeseen tropical wave rapidly intensifying under anomalous low shear, though current model consensus shows none.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
वॉल्यूम
$42,767समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95.5% implied probability to no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest tropical weather discussion on April 19, which notes minimal synoptic conditions for development—no disturbances, a confined monsoon trough over Africa, and scattered convection only along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)—with routine Tropical Weather Outlooks resuming May 15. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the main development region (MDR) remain below the 26.5°C threshold for sustained hurricane genesis, exacerbated by typical springtime vertical wind shear. Historical data underscores rarity, with no Atlantic hurricanes before June 1 in recent decades and only isolated cases like 1951's Hurricane Able since 1851. Realistic shifts could involve an unforeseen tropical wave rapidly intensifying under anomalous low shear, though current model consensus shows none.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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