Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.5% implied probability for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by climatological rarity and current National Hurricane Center guidance. As of April 18, only 5 hurricanes have formed before June 1 since 1851 reliable records began, none in the satellite era, due to typically cool sea surface temperatures below 26.5°C in the main development region, moderate-to-high vertical wind shear, and dry Saharan air suppressing organization. The latest NHC 7-day graphical outlook shows no disturbances, with tropical cyclone formation not expected and routine updates resuming May 15. A realistic upset would require an anomalous tropical wave entering warm western Atlantic waters in late May amid shear relaxation, though model consensus deems this improbable amid a forecasted below-normal season from emerging El Niño conditions.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या 31 मई तक तूफ़ान बन जाएगा?
क्या 31 मई तक तूफ़ान बन जाएगा?
हाँ
$42,767 वॉल्यूम
$42,767 वॉल्यूम
31 मई, 2026
हाँ
$42,767 वॉल्यूम
$42,767 वॉल्यूम
31 मई, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.5% implied probability for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by climatological rarity and current National Hurricane Center guidance. As of April 18, only 5 hurricanes have formed before June 1 since 1851 reliable records began, none in the satellite era, due to typically cool sea surface temperatures below 26.5°C in the main development region, moderate-to-high vertical wind shear, and dry Saharan air suppressing organization. The latest NHC 7-day graphical outlook shows no disturbances, with tropical cyclone formation not expected and routine updates resuming May 15. A realistic upset would require an anomalous tropical wave entering warm western Atlantic waters in late May amid shear relaxation, though model consensus deems this improbable amid a forecasted below-normal season from emerging El Niño conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$42,767समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.5% implied probability for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by climatological rarity and current National Hurricane Center guidance. As of April 18, only 5 hurricanes have formed before June 1 since 1851 reliable records began, none in the satellite era, due to typically cool sea surface temperatures below 26.5°C in the main development region, moderate-to-high vertical wind shear, and dry Saharan air suppressing organization. The latest NHC 7-day graphical outlook shows no disturbances, with tropical cyclone formation not expected and routine updates resuming May 15. A realistic upset would require an anomalous tropical wave entering warm western Atlantic waters in late May amid shear relaxation, though model consensus deems this improbable amid a forecasted below-normal season from emerging El Niño conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
वॉल्यूम
$42,767समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.5% implied probability for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by climatological rarity and current National Hurricane Center guidance. As of April 18, only 5 hurricanes have formed before June 1 since 1851 reliable records began, none in the satellite era, due to typically cool sea surface temperatures below 26.5°C in the main development region, moderate-to-high vertical wind shear, and dry Saharan air suppressing organization. The latest NHC 7-day graphical outlook shows no disturbances, with tropical cyclone formation not expected and routine updates resuming May 15. A realistic upset would require an anomalous tropical wave entering warm western Atlantic waters in late May amid shear relaxation, though model consensus deems this improbable amid a forecasted below-normal season from emerging El Niño conditions.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न