Former U.S. Rep. Ben McAdams leads trader consensus at 74% implied probability to win Utah's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on June 23, reflecting his early polling edge (36% vs. Nate Blouin's 23% in the March Data for Progress survey among likely voters), fundraising dominance, and recent endorsement from dropping candidate Kathleen Riebe, who criticized Blouin as volatile. Blouin's 21.5% share stems from progressive backing like Bernie Sanders and gains in informed-ballot tests, though backlash over his past social media posts has tempered momentum. Yesterday's state Democratic convention upset, where newcomer Liban Mohamed secured delegate endorsement via ranked-choice voting (51%, ahead of McAdams and Blouin), has yet to shift odds amid McAdams' name recognition and moderate appeal in the redrawn blue-leaning district.