Preliminary counts from the Storm Prediction Center through late September stand at around 37-45 confirmed tornadoes, well below the long-term average of roughly 66, driven by limited tropical cyclone influences and only modest mid-latitude outbreak activity early and late in the month. National Weather Service surveys continue to add ratings from local storm reports, creating upward revision potential that supports the market's strong consensus around 50-74. With no major landfalls or widespread severe patterns reported, final tallies are unlikely to reach higher bins, while historical shoulder-season sparsity limits the chance of falling much lower once all verifications conclude. Updated SPC and NCEI releases expected in November will provide the authoritative close.