Polymarket traders assign a 74.5% implied probability to no US bank failure by June 30, driven by the sector's resilience following the sole 2026 closure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust on January 30, with no subsequent failures amid stable FDIC-insured institution metrics. Recent Federal Reserve stress test scenarios released in February align with baseline economic forecasts, signaling adequate capital buffers against hypothetical recessions featuring commercial real estate stress, while Q4 2025 delinquency rates improved despite a looming $2 trillion CRE debt maturity wall. Consensus reflects low systemic risk from post-SVB reforms, though 25.5% prices in tail risks from refinancing pressures. Key catalysts include June Fed stress test results and ongoing Q1 bank earnings disclosures.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
$14,844 वॉल्यूम
$14,844 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
हाँ
$14,844 वॉल्यूम
$14,844 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Polymarket traders assign a 74.5% implied probability to no US bank failure by June 30, driven by the sector's resilience following the sole 2026 closure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust on January 30, with no subsequent failures amid stable FDIC-insured institution metrics. Recent Federal Reserve stress test scenarios released in February align with baseline economic forecasts, signaling adequate capital buffers against hypothetical recessions featuring commercial real estate stress, while Q4 2025 delinquency rates improved despite a looming $2 trillion CRE debt maturity wall. Consensus reflects low systemic risk from post-SVB reforms, though 25.5% prices in tail risks from refinancing pressures. Key catalysts include June Fed stress test results and ongoing Q1 bank earnings disclosures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 8, 2026, 7:11 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$14,844समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 8, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Polymarket traders assign a 74.5% implied probability to no US bank failure by June 30, driven by the sector's resilience following the sole 2026 closure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust on January 30, with no subsequent failures amid stable FDIC-insured institution metrics. Recent Federal Reserve stress test scenarios released in February align with baseline economic forecasts, signaling adequate capital buffers against hypothetical recessions featuring commercial real estate stress, while Q4 2025 delinquency rates improved despite a looming $2 trillion CRE debt maturity wall. Consensus reflects low systemic risk from post-SVB reforms, though 25.5% prices in tail risks from refinancing pressures. Key catalysts include June Fed stress test results and ongoing Q1 bank earnings disclosures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
वॉल्यूम
$14,844समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 8, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders assign a 74.5% implied probability to no US bank failure by June 30, driven by the sector's resilience following the sole 2026 closure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust on January 30, with no subsequent failures amid stable FDIC-insured institution metrics. Recent Federal Reserve stress test scenarios released in February align with baseline economic forecasts, signaling adequate capital buffers against hypothetical recessions featuring commercial real estate stress, while Q4 2025 delinquency rates improved despite a looming $2 trillion CRE debt maturity wall. Consensus reflects low systemic risk from post-SVB reforms, though 25.5% prices in tail risks from refinancing pressures. Key catalysts include June Fed stress test results and ongoing Q1 bank earnings disclosures.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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