Recent Starship Flight 13 successes in July 2026, combined with Elon Musk's August earnings call confirmation of a planned tower catch for the upper stage on Flight 14 this month, have anchored trader consensus around the 58% implied probability for full reusability before 2027. Starship V3 hardware with Raptor 3 engines has enabled better performance and recovery demonstrations, building on prior Super Heavy booster catches. Key near-term catalysts include regulatory approval for ship recovery attempts, potential rapid flight cadence increases, and in-orbit propellant transfer tests. Persistent hurdles such as FAA licensing timelines and the need for repeated, rapid reuse demonstrations continue to inject uncertainty into the market's assessment of the 2026 window.