The brief remaining timeframe until June 30, paired with the low global recurrence rate of magnitude-8-or-greater earthquakes, underpins the 92.5% market-implied odds against a megaquake. Worldwide, such events average roughly one to two per year according to long-term USGS seismic catalogs, yielding a small statistical likelihood in a roughly three-week window. Current monitoring networks show no widespread precursors or clustering on major fault systems that would elevate near-term risk above baseline. While sudden rupture remains possible on any active subduction zone or strike-slip boundary, the absence of anomalous strain accumulation or foreshock patterns in official data reinforces trader consensus. Continuous USGS updates through the month will provide the next objective checks on activity levels.