Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors seven Republican senators not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms (67.5% implied probability), matching confirmed announcements from seven of the 20 Class II GOP incumbents up for renewal. Recent catalysts include Oklahoma interim Sen. Alan Armstrong's March 24 disclosure that state law bars him from a full term after his appointment to replace Markwayne Mullin, and Montana Sen. Steve Daines' March 4 retirement statement, elevating the tally from five to seven alongside earlier decisions by Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), and Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, running for governor). With no announcements in the past three weeks amid a polarized environment driving record congressional retirements, traders anticipate stability, though upcoming primaries or scandals could spur additional exits and lift lower-probability outcomes like 11 (9.6%).
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया7 65%
11 10.1%
8 6.8%
5 6.6%
$72,862 वॉल्यूम
$72,862 वॉल्यूम
31 अग, 2026
<5
3%
5
7%
6
6%
7
65%
8
7%
9
1%
10
1%
11
10%
12+
1%
7 65%
11 10.1%
8 6.8%
5 6.6%
$72,862 वॉल्यूम
$72,862 वॉल्यूम
31 अग, 2026
<5
$19,866 वॉल्यूम
3%
5
$15,398 वॉल्यूम
7%
6
$26,193 वॉल्यूम
6%
7
$2,138 वॉल्यूम
65%
8
$1,589 वॉल्यूम
7%
9
$1,211 वॉल्यूम
1%
10
$1,240 वॉल्यूम
1%
11
$918 वॉल्यूम
10%
12+
$4,308 वॉल्यूम
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors seven Republican senators not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms (67.5% implied probability), matching confirmed announcements from seven of the 20 Class II GOP incumbents up for renewal. Recent catalysts include Oklahoma interim Sen. Alan Armstrong's March 24 disclosure that state law bars him from a full term after his appointment to replace Markwayne Mullin, and Montana Sen. Steve Daines' March 4 retirement statement, elevating the tally from five to seven alongside earlier decisions by Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), and Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, running for governor). With no announcements in the past three weeks amid a polarized environment driving record congressional retirements, traders anticipate stability, though upcoming primaries or scandals could spur additional exits and lift lower-probability outcomes like 11 (9.6%).
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$72,862समाप्ति तिथि
31 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors seven Republican senators not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms (67.5% implied probability), matching confirmed announcements from seven of the 20 Class II GOP incumbents up for renewal. Recent catalysts include Oklahoma interim Sen. Alan Armstrong's March 24 disclosure that state law bars him from a full term after his appointment to replace Markwayne Mullin, and Montana Sen. Steve Daines' March 4 retirement statement, elevating the tally from five to seven alongside earlier decisions by Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), and Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, running for governor). With no announcements in the past three weeks amid a polarized environment driving record congressional retirements, traders anticipate stability, though upcoming primaries or scandals could spur additional exits and lift lower-probability outcomes like 11 (9.6%).
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$72,862समाप्ति तिथि
31 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors seven Republican senators not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms (67.5% implied probability), matching confirmed announcements from seven of the 20 Class II GOP incumbents up for renewal. Recent catalysts include Oklahoma interim Sen. Alan Armstrong's March 24 disclosure that state law bars him from a full term after his appointment to replace Markwayne Mullin, and Montana Sen. Steve Daines' March 4 retirement statement, elevating the tally from five to seven alongside earlier decisions by Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), and Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, running for governor). With no announcements in the past three weeks amid a polarized environment driving record congressional retirements, traders anticipate stability, though upcoming primaries or scandals could spur additional exits and lift lower-probability outcomes like 11 (9.6%).
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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