Trader consensus favors State Senator Aisha Wahab at 54.5% implied probability to win California's 14th Congressional District special election, driven by her early polling lead in a crowded Democratic field following Rep. Eric Swalwell's April 14 resignation amid sexual misconduct allegations. A Working Families Party internal poll from early April showed Wahab at 29% among likely primary voters, well ahead of BART Director Melissa Hernandez (9%) and others, with many undecided amid Democratic efforts to clear the field for a caretaker candidate that faltered. Attorney Rakhi Israni Singh trails at 37%, reflecting fundraising and momentum in the top-two primary set for June 16, potentially leading to an August 18 Democratic runoff in this Harris +36 battleground.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाCA-14 Special Election Winner?
CA-14 Special Election Winner?
Aisha Wahab 61%
Carin Elam 25.8%
Melissa Hernandez 24%
Rakhi Israni Singh 18%
Aisha Wahab
48%
Melissa Hernandez
24%
Wendy Huang
23%
Carin Elam
26%
Matt Ortega
27%
Rakhi Israni Singh
21%
Victor Aguilar Jr.
14%
Aisha Wahab 61%
Carin Elam 25.8%
Melissa Hernandez 24%
Rakhi Israni Singh 18%
Aisha Wahab
48%
Melissa Hernandez
24%
Wendy Huang
23%
Carin Elam
26%
Matt Ortega
27%
Rakhi Israni Singh
21%
Victor Aguilar Jr.
14%
This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.
This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.
This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors State Senator Aisha Wahab at 54.5% implied probability to win California's 14th Congressional District special election, driven by her early polling lead in a crowded Democratic field following Rep. Eric Swalwell's April 14 resignation amid sexual misconduct allegations. A Working Families Party internal poll from early April showed Wahab at 29% among likely primary voters, well ahead of BART Director Melissa Hernandez (9%) and others, with many undecided amid Democratic efforts to clear the field for a caretaker candidate that faltered. Attorney Rakhi Israni Singh trails at 37%, reflecting fundraising and momentum in the top-two primary set for June 16, potentially leading to an August 18 Democratic runoff in this Harris +36 battleground.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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