Following Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick's April 21 resignation amid a House Ethics Committee probe into campaign finance issues, Florida's 20th Congressional District Democratic primary on August 18 remains a tight open-seat contest, with trader consensus giving former Broward commissioner Dale Holness a narrow edge at 36.5% implied probability over progressive organizer Elijah Manley at 29.5%. Early 2026 polls from Listener Group showed Manley leading amid anti-incumbent sentiment, but no recent surveys have emerged, leaving odds driven by Holness' local name recognition and government experience versus Manley's grassroots momentum and endorsements like the Alliance 4 American Leadership PAC. Rapper Luther Campbell's late April entry has fragmented support, while upcoming fundraising disclosures, debates, or party endorsements could tip the balance in this crowded field of seven contenders.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाElijah Manley 46%
Dale Holness 17%
Mark Douglas 5.5%
Maisha Williams 5.1%
Elijah Manley
33%
Dale Holness
37%
Mark Douglas
5%
Maisha Williams
5%
Luther Campbell
5%
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick
2%
Rudy Moise
1%
Elijah Manley 46%
Dale Holness 17%
Mark Douglas 5.5%
Maisha Williams 5.1%
Elijah Manley
33%
Dale Holness
37%
Mark Douglas
5%
Maisha Williams
5%
Luther Campbell
5%
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick
2%
Rudy Moise
1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 22, 2026, 1:10 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Following Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick's April 21 resignation amid a House Ethics Committee probe into campaign finance issues, Florida's 20th Congressional District Democratic primary on August 18 remains a tight open-seat contest, with trader consensus giving former Broward commissioner Dale Holness a narrow edge at 36.5% implied probability over progressive organizer Elijah Manley at 29.5%. Early 2026 polls from Listener Group showed Manley leading amid anti-incumbent sentiment, but no recent surveys have emerged, leaving odds driven by Holness' local name recognition and government experience versus Manley's grassroots momentum and endorsements like the Alliance 4 American Leadership PAC. Rapper Luther Campbell's late April entry has fragmented support, while upcoming fundraising disclosures, debates, or party endorsements could tip the balance in this crowded field of seven contenders.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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