Trader consensus on the low likelihood of a China coup attempt before 2027 reflects the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) entrenched institutional controls, including tight oversight of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and repeated leadership purges that have reinforced loyalty to Xi Jinping. Recent developments, such as the early 2026 removal of senior generals including Zhang Youxia, have been interpreted by analysts as internal consolidation rather than evidence of factional revolt, with no verified reports of organized challenges or violence. The party’s surveillance apparatus and historical precedent of stable succession further support this positioning. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden leadership health developments or acute economic pressures triggering elite fractures, though such outcomes face significant structural barriers within the current system.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
3% संभावना
$153,586 वॉल्यूम
$153,586 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
3% संभावना
$153,586 वॉल्यूम
$153,586 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on the low likelihood of a China coup attempt before 2027 reflects the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) entrenched institutional controls, including tight oversight of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and repeated leadership purges that have reinforced loyalty to Xi Jinping. Recent developments, such as the early 2026 removal of senior generals including Zhang Youxia, have been interpreted by analysts as internal consolidation rather than evidence of factional revolt, with no verified reports of organized challenges or violence. The party’s surveillance apparatus and historical precedent of stable succession further support this positioning. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden leadership health developments or acute economic pressures triggering elite fractures, though such outcomes face significant structural barriers within the current system.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$153,586समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on the low likelihood of a China coup attempt before 2027 reflects the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) entrenched institutional controls, including tight oversight of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and repeated leadership purges that have reinforced loyalty to Xi Jinping. Recent developments, such as the early 2026 removal of senior generals including Zhang Youxia, have been interpreted by analysts as internal consolidation rather than evidence of factional revolt, with no verified reports of organized challenges or violence. The party’s surveillance apparatus and historical precedent of stable succession further support this positioning. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden leadership health developments or acute economic pressures triggering elite fractures, though such outcomes face significant structural barriers within the current system.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$153,586समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on the low likelihood of a China coup attempt before 2027 reflects the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) entrenched institutional controls, including tight oversight of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and repeated leadership purges that have reinforced loyalty to Xi Jinping. Recent developments, such as the early 2026 removal of senior generals including Zhang Youxia, have been interpreted by analysts as internal consolidation rather than evidence of factional revolt, with no verified reports of organized challenges or violence. The party’s surveillance apparatus and historical precedent of stable succession further support this positioning. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden leadership health developments or acute economic pressures triggering elite fractures, though such outcomes face significant structural barriers within the current system.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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