Traders assign an 81% implied probability to no further U.S. sovereign downgrade before 2027 because Moody’s May 2025 move to Aa1 from Aaa—with a stable outlook—brought all three major agencies into alignment after S&P’s 2011 and Fitch’s 2023 actions, and no subsequent fiscal or governance deterioration has triggered fresh negative watches. Persistent deficits and debt above $36 trillion remain priced in, yet Moody’s cited the independent Federal Reserve’s effective monetary policy as a stabilizing factor, while recent budget resolutions avoided acute debt-ceiling brinkmanship. Scope’s October 2025 notch cut was limited to a non-major agency. With roughly seven months remaining in 2026 and stable outlooks prevailing, the market-implied odds reflect limited near-term catalysts capable of prompting another one-notch reduction across the rating committee threshold.