Google's October 1 launch of the Project Suncatcher MVP satellite—carrying four TPUs aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9—represents the most recent verified step toward orbital AI compute, validating hardware survival under launch vibration, radiation, and thermal stress in low Earth orbit. This follows Starcloud's 2025 demonstration of a single NVIDIA H100 GPU that trained a small language model in space, alongside regulatory filings by SpaceX for up to one million AI satellites and Blue Origin's Project Sunrise constellation. No entity has yet deployed the required minimum of 100 data-center-grade accelerators (GPUs or TPUs) in a qualifying orbital data center, keeping near-term probabilities low while 2027 plans for additional Google test satellites, Starcloud commercial missions, and SpaceX AI1 nodes could shift timelines if scaling and inter-satellite laser links succeed.