Russia's 62.5% implied probability as favorites in this international friendly stems from home advantage at Gazprom Arena in Saint Petersburg, superior FIFA ranking (around 36th vs. Mali's mid-50s), and stronger recent form in 2026 friendlies, including a solid record of mostly wins despite a recent 0-2 loss to Chile. Mali's squad, announced March 25 by coach Tom Saintfiet, features significant absences of key AFCON 2025 performers like Yves Bissouma, El Bilal Touré, and Amadou Haïdara due to club commitments and injuries, weakening their attack and midfield ahead of this first-ever head-to-head. Russia misses midfielder Fomin to injury but fields a competitive lineup, boosting trader consensus on a home win while pricing the draw at 23.5% amid friendly unpredictability and Mali's 15% upset potential.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

If Russia wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No".
This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Marché ouvert : Mar 4, 2026, 9:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.fifa.comResolver
0x69c47De9D...

If Russia wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No".
This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Marché ouvert : Mar 4, 2026, 9:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.fifa.comResolver
0x69c47De9D...Russia's 62.5% implied probability as favorites in this international friendly stems from home advantage at Gazprom Arena in Saint Petersburg, superior FIFA ranking (around 36th vs. Mali's mid-50s), and stronger recent form in 2026 friendlies, including a solid record of mostly wins despite a recent 0-2 loss to Chile. Mali's squad, announced March 25 by coach Tom Saintfiet, features significant absences of key AFCON 2025 performers like Yves Bissouma, El Bilal Touré, and Amadou Haïdara due to club commitments and injuries, weakening their attack and midfield ahead of this first-ever head-to-head. Russia misses midfielder Fomin to injury but fields a competitive lineup, boosting trader consensus on a home win while pricing the draw at 23.5% amid friendly unpredictability and Mali's 15% upset potential.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes