Co-leaders Fabiano Caruana and Javokhir Sindarov, both on 2.5/3 points after Round 3 triumphs—Caruana's 19-move miniature over Wei Yi and Sindarov's piece-sacrifice win against Praggnanandhaa with Black—clash in Round 4 of the FIDE Candidates 2026 Open, driving trader consensus toward a 71.5% draw probability reflective of elite classical chess where such evenly matched grandmasters (Caruana rated 2795, Sindarov surging) frequently split the point. Sindarov's slight 16.5% edge over Caruana's 15.5% stems from White pieces and his hot streak of decisive results against top seeds, though Caruana's experience in five prior Candidates tempers upset potential in this double round-robin showdown before the first rest day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

If Javokhir Sindarov wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Marché ouvert : Mar 31, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://lichess.org/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...

If Javokhir Sindarov wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Marché ouvert : Mar 31, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://lichess.org/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Co-leaders Fabiano Caruana and Javokhir Sindarov, both on 2.5/3 points after Round 3 triumphs—Caruana's 19-move miniature over Wei Yi and Sindarov's piece-sacrifice win against Praggnanandhaa with Black—clash in Round 4 of the FIDE Candidates 2026 Open, driving trader consensus toward a 71.5% draw probability reflective of elite classical chess where such evenly matched grandmasters (Caruana rated 2795, Sindarov surging) frequently split the point. Sindarov's slight 16.5% edge over Caruana's 15.5% stems from White pieces and his hot streak of decisive results against top seeds, though Caruana's experience in five prior Candidates tempers upset potential in this double round-robin showdown before the first rest day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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