Trader consensus reflects a 94.7% implied probability against Israel annexing Gaza territory by June 30, 2026, driven by the absence of any official Israeli government commitment or procedural steps toward sovereignty claims over the enclave. Recent security cabinet meetings and military operations in Gaza, including advances in Khan Younis as of mid-December 2024, prioritize Hamas degradation and long-term security control rather than annexation, with no fresh announcements in the past 30 days advancing territorial expansion. Far-right ministers like Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir continue advocating Jewish settlement, but Prime Minister Netanyahu faces US opposition, international law constraints under UN resolutions, and demographic challenges from Gaza's Palestinian majority. While a post-war governance shift or US foreign policy change post-January 2025 inauguration could introduce uncertainty, current diplomatic and military postures reinforce trader skepticism.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$81,458 Vol.
$81,458 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Oui
$81,458 Vol.
$81,458 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the Gaza Strip that they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law. Instances where Israeli settlers claim administrative control over land in the Gaza Strip without formal annexation will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the Gaza Strip that they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law. Instances where Israeli settlers claim administrative control over land in the Gaza Strip without formal annexation will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the Gaza Strip that they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law. Instances where Israeli settlers claim administrative control over land in the Gaza Strip without formal annexation will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the Gaza Strip that they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law. Instances where Israeli settlers claim administrative control over land in the Gaza Strip without formal annexation will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Oct 15, 2025, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$81,458Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 15, 2025, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the Gaza Strip that they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law. Instances where Israeli settlers claim administrative control over land in the Gaza Strip without formal annexation will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the Gaza Strip that they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law. Instances where Israeli settlers claim administrative control over land in the Gaza Strip without formal annexation will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the Gaza Strip that they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law. Instances where Israeli settlers claim administrative control over land in the Gaza Strip without formal annexation will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the Gaza Strip that they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law. Instances where Israeli settlers claim administrative control over land in the Gaza Strip without formal annexation will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$81,458Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 15, 2025, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 94.7% implied probability against Israel annexing Gaza territory by June 30, 2026, driven by the absence of any official Israeli government commitment or procedural steps toward sovereignty claims over the enclave. Recent security cabinet meetings and military operations in Gaza, including advances in Khan Younis as of mid-December 2024, prioritize Hamas degradation and long-term security control rather than annexation, with no fresh announcements in the past 30 days advancing territorial expansion. Far-right ministers like Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir continue advocating Jewish settlement, but Prime Minister Netanyahu faces US opposition, international law constraints under UN resolutions, and demographic challenges from Gaza's Palestinian majority. While a post-war governance shift or US foreign policy change post-January 2025 inauguration could introduce uncertainty, current diplomatic and military postures reinforce trader skepticism.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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