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George R. R. Martin annoncera-t-il « The Winds of Winter » en 2026 ?

Market icon

George R. R. Martin annoncera-t-il « The Winds of Winter » en 2026 ?

Oui

14% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Oui

14% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU
This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86% implied probability to "No" for George R.R. Martin announcing The Winds of Winter in 2026, reflecting the stark absence of any update through the first quarter and his entrenched history of delays spanning over 15 years. Martin's January Hollywood Reporter interview disclosed roughly 1,100 pages drafted amid persistent distractions from HBO adaptations like A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms—currently filming its second season—and plans for a Fire & Blood sequel, plus at least 12 more Dunk & Egg novellas post-Winds. His Not A Blog, last addressing Winds progress in 2020, featured no 2026 mentions amid February posts on tournaments and speeches. With no firm timeline and frequent chapter rewrites, traders see slim catalysts ahead despite the author's stated commitment, underscoring the unpredictability of long-gestating fantasy epics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$9,573
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 15, 2026, 7:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86% implied probability to "No" for George R.R. Martin announcing The Winds of Winter in 2026, reflecting the stark absence of any update through the first quarter and his entrenched history of delays spanning over 15 years. Martin's January Hollywood Reporter interview disclosed roughly 1,100 pages drafted amid persistent distractions from HBO adaptations like A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms—currently filming its second season—and plans for a Fire & Blood sequel, plus at least 12 more Dunk & Egg novellas post-Winds. His Not A Blog, last addressing Winds progress in 2020, featured no 2026 mentions amid February posts on tournaments and speeches. With no firm timeline and frequent chapter rewrites, traders see slim catalysts ahead despite the author's stated commitment, underscoring the unpredictability of long-gestating fantasy epics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$9,573
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 15, 2026, 7:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.

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Questions fréquentes

« George R. R. Martin annoncera-t-il « The Winds of Winter » en 2026 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « George R. R. Martin annoncera-t-il "The Winds of Winter" en 2026 ? » à 14%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 14¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 14% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« George R. R. Martin annoncera-t-il « The Winds of Winter » en 2026 ? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Jan 16, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

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Le favori actuel pour « George R. R. Martin annoncera-t-il « The Winds of Winter » en 2026 ? » est « George R. R. Martin annoncera-t-il "The Winds of Winter" en 2026 ? » à 14%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 14% à ce résultat. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

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