Name: Will Egypt open its border for Palestinian refugees by Nov 1?
Start: 2023-10-15T21:06:00.056Z
End: 2023-11-01T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Egypt opens its border with Gaza for Palestinian refugees by November 1, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The "Yes" criterion includes the opening of the Rafah border crossing for refugees, the creation of a humanitarian corridor, or any other mechanism that intends to allow the passage of Palestinian refugees directly into Egypt.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Egyptian government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Egypt open its border for Palestinian refugees by Nov 1?

On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Le cessez-le-feu entre Israël et le Hamas annulé d'ici le 30 juin ?

On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire.  Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.

An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.

Israël x Hamas : Phase II du cessez-le-feu d'ici le 30 juin ?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the Gaza Strip that they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.

Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law. Instances where Israeli settlers claim administrative control over land in the Gaza Strip without formal annexation will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Israël annexera-t-il le territoire de Gaza d'ici le 30 juin 2026 ?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.

For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.

Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.

Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.

Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.

Hamas acceptera-t-il de se désarmer d'ici le 31 mars ?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Israël lancera-t-il une offensive terrestre majeure à Gaza d'ici le 31 mars ?

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Le Bangladesh reconnaîtra-t-il Israël d'ici le 30 juin ?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.

Cessez-le-feu dans la guerre civile au Soudan d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states.    

Ceasefire announcements or other announced de-escalations such as those relating to the July 16-18 skirmishes with the Druze, or any other future military engagements, which do not address the broader security relationship will not qualify.

Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a formalized agreement will not count.

The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, an agreement which is announced by only of the parties will qualify if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that such a formal agreement has been reached.

Accord de sécurité Israël x Syrie d'ici le 30 juin ?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Israël et la Syrie normalisent-elles leurs relations d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between this market’s creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Israel strikes Iran
- Israel withdraws from Gaza
- Syria strikes Israel
- Israel and Lebanon normalize relations
- Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled
- Israel x Turkey military clash

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+Israel+Edition.pdf

Il ne se passe jamais rien : Édition Israël

Donald Trump and the United States recently sent invitations to countries around the world, inviting them to join the US-led Board of Peace which will oversee conflict resolution in Gaza and elsewhere (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-names-rubio-blair-kushner-gaza-board-under-trumps-plan-2026-01-17/).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country joins the Board of Peace by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:

- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.

- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).

Only statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board of peace,” “we accepted an invitation to the board of peace,” etc.). Statements which are not definitive in their expression of intent to join (e.g. “we agree in principle”, “we will join pending further details”, “we are ready to do our part in working for the reconstruction of Gaza” etc.) will not count. 

Qualifying announcements within this market’s timeframe will count regardless of when the relevant country intends to join the board of peace, or whether or not they ultimately join.

Statements from Donald Trump or the US government will not alone qualify.  

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will India join the Board of Peace?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture El Obeid (https://maps.app.goo.gl/NQaTN51errVH9KyN6) by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "El-Obeid Great Mosque" (مسجد الأبيّض الكبير: https://maps.app.goo.gl/LyxD1PPGux7CYSdYA) by the resolution date. 

If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.

Les FSR vont-elles capturer El Obeid d'ici le 31 janvier ?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between September 20 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Le parlement israélien dissous avant le 31 mars ?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory between July 22, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.

Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Israël annexera-t-il un territoire d'ici le 30 juin?

Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.

Plus de 1 000 transits de porte-conteneurs par le canal de Suez au premier trimestre 2026 ?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mahmoud Abbas ceases to be President of the Palestinian National Authority for any length of time by the December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mahmoud Abbas will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of the Palestinian National Authority within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the Palestinian Authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Mahmoud Abbas quittera-t-il la présidence palestinienne d'ici le 31 décembre ?

Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits for the full year of 2023, or about 2,923 container ship transits per half-year. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 874 container ship transits of the canal per half-year in 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.

Plus de 2 000 transits de porte-conteneurs par le canal de Suez au premier semestre 2026 ?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date. 

If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.

L'Armée de soutien rapide (RSF) prendra-t-elle Khartoum d'ici le 30 juin ?

If Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits New York City by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Netanyahu physically entering the terrestrial territory of New York City, and setting foot on the ground. Whether or not Netanyahu enters New York City's airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel, the United States, or New York City, or official information from Netanyahu or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/netanyahu); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Netanyahu visitera-t-il New York avant le 31 mars ?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Israël et l'Indonésie normalisent leurs relations d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of Greece and Turkey by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Greek and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. 

Missiles or drone strikes that are intercepted will not qualify, regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface-to-air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify).

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Engagement militaire Grèce x Turquie d'ici le 30 juin ?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.

Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.

The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.  

Les États-Unis évacuent-ils l'ambassade de Bagdad d'ici le 31 janvier ?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Egypt open its border for Palestinian refugees by Nov 1?

Contexte du Marché

Will Egypt open its border for Palestinian refugees by Nov 1?

Règles

Will Egypt open its border for Palestinian refugees by Nov 1?

Contexte du Marché

Will Egypt open its border for Palestinian refugees by Nov 1?

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