The Republican Party holds a 60.5% implied probability in the WI-01 House race, driven by the district’s R+2 partisan voting index and four-term incumbent Bryan Steil’s established fundraising edge and consistent general-election margins above 54%. A recent Wisconsin panel decision preserved the existing congressional map, blocking Democratic efforts to redraw lines ahead of the November 2026 election. On the Democratic side, a crowded August 11 primary featuring Mitchell Berman—who has raised more than $500,000—and other entrants keeps the nomination unsettled, though early polling shows Steil ahead by single digits. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato classify the seat as Likely or Solid Republican, reflecting the structural advantages that continue to shape trader consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourWI-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
WI-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
62%
Parti démocrate
37%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$623 Vol.
62%
Parti démocrate
$500 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican Party holds a 60.5% implied probability in the WI-01 House race, driven by the district’s R+2 partisan voting index and four-term incumbent Bryan Steil’s established fundraising edge and consistent general-election margins above 54%. A recent Wisconsin panel decision preserved the existing congressional map, blocking Democratic efforts to redraw lines ahead of the November 2026 election. On the Democratic side, a crowded August 11 primary featuring Mitchell Berman—who has raised more than $500,000—and other entrants keeps the nomination unsettled, though early polling shows Steil ahead by single digits. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato classify the seat as Likely or Solid Republican, reflecting the structural advantages that continue to shape trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volume
$1,123Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican Party holds a 60.5% implied probability in the WI-01 House race, driven by the district’s R+2 partisan voting index and four-term incumbent Bryan Steil’s established fundraising edge and consistent general-election margins above 54%. A recent Wisconsin panel decision preserved the existing congressional map, blocking Democratic efforts to redraw lines ahead of the November 2026 election. On the Democratic side, a crowded August 11 primary featuring Mitchell Berman—who has raised more than $500,000—and other entrants keeps the nomination unsettled, though early polling shows Steil ahead by single digits. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato classify the seat as Likely or Solid Republican, reflecting the structural advantages that continue to shape trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$1,123Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Republican Party holds a 60.5% implied probability in the WI-01 House race, driven by the district’s R+2 partisan voting index and four-term incumbent Bryan Steil’s established fundraising edge and consistent general-election margins above 54%. A recent Wisconsin panel decision preserved the existing congressional map, blocking Democratic efforts to redraw lines ahead of the November 2026 election. On the Democratic side, a crowded August 11 primary featuring Mitchell Berman—who has raised more than $500,000—and other entrants keeps the nomination unsettled, though early polling shows Steil ahead by single digits. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato classify the seat as Likely or Solid Republican, reflecting the structural advantages that continue to shape trader consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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