Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer (59.5%) as the next Trump Cabinet departure before 2027, driven by escalating scandals and staff exodus at the Department of Labor. Over the past month, her top aides resigned amid a Labor Department inspector general probe into alleged travel fraud, misuse of resources, and a hostile workplace; her husband was barred from premises following sexual assault claims by staffers; and her bodyguard quit last week over affair allegations. A fourth staffer was recently fired as the inquiry widened, fueling speculation of her imminent ouster despite no public resignation statement. Lower odds for Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard (10.8%) and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (9.3%) reflect their relative stability amid fewer controversies, with "None before 2027" at just 5.9% given recent precedent like Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem's March firing. Senate oversight or further probe developments could accelerate shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLori Chavez-DeRemer 60%
Tulsi Gabbard 10.8%
Pete Hegseth 10.8%
Aucun avant 2027 5.8%
$1,362,463 Vol.
$1,362,463 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
60%
Tulsi Gabbard
11%
Pete Hegseth
11%
Aucun avant 2027
6%
Scott Bessent
2%
Brooke Rollins
1%
J.D. Vance
1%
Pam Bondi
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Howard Lutnick
1%
Susie Wiles
1%
Scott Turner
1%
Marco Rubio
1%
Sean Duffy
1%
Chris Wright
1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
1%
John Ratcliffe
1%
Russell T. Vought
1%
Mike Waltz
<1%
Lee Zeldin
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
<1%
Jamieson Greer
<1%
Doug Collins
<1%
Doug Burgum
<1%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer 60%
Tulsi Gabbard 10.8%
Pete Hegseth 10.8%
Aucun avant 2027 5.8%
$1,362,463 Vol.
$1,362,463 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$73,126 Vol.
60%
Tulsi Gabbard
$693,862 Vol.
11%
Pete Hegseth
$271,673 Vol.
11%
Aucun avant 2027
$71,281 Vol.
6%
Scott Bessent
$4,568 Vol.
2%
Brooke Rollins
$6,623 Vol.
1%
J.D. Vance
$7,171 Vol.
1%
Pam Bondi
$3,967 Vol.
1%
Linda McMahon
$9,792 Vol.
1%
Howard Lutnick
$25,948 Vol.
1%
Susie Wiles
$4,682 Vol.
1%
Scott Turner
$5,472 Vol.
1%
Marco Rubio
$50,374 Vol.
1%
Sean Duffy
$57,333 Vol.
1%
Chris Wright
$3,792 Vol.
1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$3,560 Vol.
1%
John Ratcliffe
$3,998 Vol.
1%
Russell T. Vought
$3,891 Vol.
1%
Mike Waltz
$4,019 Vol.
<1%
Lee Zeldin
$40,073 Vol.
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
$3,705 Vol.
<1%
Jamieson Greer
$4,507 Vol.
<1%
Doug Collins
$3,258 Vol.
<1%
Doug Burgum
$5,787 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer (59.5%) as the next Trump Cabinet departure before 2027, driven by escalating scandals and staff exodus at the Department of Labor. Over the past month, her top aides resigned amid a Labor Department inspector general probe into alleged travel fraud, misuse of resources, and a hostile workplace; her husband was barred from premises following sexual assault claims by staffers; and her bodyguard quit last week over affair allegations. A fourth staffer was recently fired as the inquiry widened, fueling speculation of her imminent ouster despite no public resignation statement. Lower odds for Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard (10.8%) and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (9.3%) reflect their relative stability amid fewer controversies, with "None before 2027" at just 5.9% given recent precedent like Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem's March firing. Senate oversight or further probe developments could accelerate shifts.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
Volume
$1,362,463Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer (59.5%) as the next Trump Cabinet departure before 2027, driven by escalating scandals and staff exodus at the Department of Labor. Over the past month, her top aides resigned amid a Labor Department inspector general probe into alleged travel fraud, misuse of resources, and a hostile workplace; her husband was barred from premises following sexual assault claims by staffers; and her bodyguard quit last week over affair allegations. A fourth staffer was recently fired as the inquiry widened, fueling speculation of her imminent ouster despite no public resignation statement. Lower odds for Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard (10.8%) and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (9.3%) reflect their relative stability amid fewer controversies, with "None before 2027" at just 5.9% given recent precedent like Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem's March firing. Senate oversight or further probe developments could accelerate shifts.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$1,362,463Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer (59.5%) as the next Trump Cabinet departure before 2027, driven by escalating scandals and staff exodus at the Department of Labor. Over the past month, her top aides resigned amid a Labor Department inspector general probe into alleged travel fraud, misuse of resources, and a hostile workplace; her husband was barred from premises following sexual assault claims by staffers; and her bodyguard quit last week over affair allegations. A fourth staffer was recently fired as the inquiry widened, fueling speculation of her imminent ouster despite no public resignation statement. Lower odds for Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard (10.8%) and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (9.3%) reflect their relative stability amid fewer controversies, with "None before 2027" at just 5.9% given recent precedent like Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem's March firing. Senate oversight or further probe developments could accelerate shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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