Incumbent Sen. Mark Warner's strong position as the Democratic nominee drives trader consensus favoring Democrats at 91.5% in the 2026 Virginia U.S. Senate race, bolstered by a fresh Virginia Commonwealth University poll released this week showing Warner leading 45%-38% over a generic Republican. This reflects Democrats' commanding 2025 statewide sweep, including ex-Rep. Abigail Spanberger's 15-point gubernatorial win and House majority expansion amid a new trifecta, signaling robust suburban turnout in this battleground state. Republicans lack a high-profile challenger after state Sen. Bryce Reeves dropped his bid, with primaries set for August 4. While odds imply low upset risk, a breakout GOP nominee, national midterm tailwinds, scandal, or Warner health issues could shift dynamics before November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Démocrate
92%
Républicain
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Démocrate
$0 Vol.
92%
Républicain
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Mark Warner's strong position as the Democratic nominee drives trader consensus favoring Democrats at 91.5% in the 2026 Virginia U.S. Senate race, bolstered by a fresh Virginia Commonwealth University poll released this week showing Warner leading 45%-38% over a generic Republican. This reflects Democrats' commanding 2025 statewide sweep, including ex-Rep. Abigail Spanberger's 15-point gubernatorial win and House majority expansion amid a new trifecta, signaling robust suburban turnout in this battleground state. Republicans lack a high-profile challenger after state Sen. Bryce Reeves dropped his bid, with primaries set for August 4. While odds imply low upset risk, a breakout GOP nominee, national midterm tailwinds, scandal, or Warner health issues could shift dynamics before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Mark Warner's strong position as the Democratic nominee drives trader consensus favoring Democrats at 91.5% in the 2026 Virginia U.S. Senate race, bolstered by a fresh Virginia Commonwealth University poll released this week showing Warner leading 45%-38% over a generic Republican. This reflects Democrats' commanding 2025 statewide sweep, including ex-Rep. Abigail Spanberger's 15-point gubernatorial win and House majority expansion amid a new trifecta, signaling robust suburban turnout in this battleground state. Republicans lack a high-profile challenger after state Sen. Bryce Reeves dropped his bid, with primaries set for August 4. While odds imply low upset risk, a breakout GOP nominee, national midterm tailwinds, scandal, or Warner health issues could shift dynamics before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$0Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Sen. Mark Warner's strong position as the Democratic nominee drives trader consensus favoring Democrats at 91.5% in the 2026 Virginia U.S. Senate race, bolstered by a fresh Virginia Commonwealth University poll released this week showing Warner leading 45%-38% over a generic Republican. This reflects Democrats' commanding 2025 statewide sweep, including ex-Rep. Abigail Spanberger's 15-point gubernatorial win and House majority expansion amid a new trifecta, signaling robust suburban turnout in this battleground state. Republicans lack a high-profile challenger after state Sen. Bryce Reeves dropped his bid, with primaries set for August 4. While odds imply low upset risk, a breakout GOP nominee, national midterm tailwinds, scandal, or Warner health issues could shift dynamics before November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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