Utah's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt following court-ordered redistricting, with Donald Trump carrying the area by 32 points in the 2024 presidential election. Incumbent Mike Kennedy secured the GOP nomination with overwhelming convention support and faces Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen in the November 3, 2026 general election. Nonpartisan race raters classify the contest as solid or safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and the district's voting patterns. Traders have priced Republican victory at 90.5 percent, consistent with historical base rates for similarly rated seats. Potential shifts could stem from unexpected turnout changes or late developments before Election Day, though structural factors limit such scenarios.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourUT-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$15,038 Vol.
$15,038 Vol.
Parti républicain
91%
Parti démocrate
9%
$15,038 Vol.
$15,038 Vol.
Parti républicain
91%
Parti démocrate
9%
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Utah's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt following court-ordered redistricting, with Donald Trump carrying the area by 32 points in the 2024 presidential election. Incumbent Mike Kennedy secured the GOP nomination with overwhelming convention support and faces Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen in the November 3, 2026 general election. Nonpartisan race raters classify the contest as solid or safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and the district's voting patterns. Traders have priced Republican victory at 90.5 percent, consistent with historical base rates for similarly rated seats. Potential shifts could stem from unexpected turnout changes or late developments before Election Day, though structural factors limit such scenarios.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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