Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75.5% implied probability against a NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027, reflecting the S&P 500's resilience despite recent volatility spikes. The VIX surged above 30 in mid-March 2026 amid U.S.-Iran conflict escalation, oil price shocks, and inflation fears, driving daily index declines of 1-2%—well short of the 7% Level 1 threshold. No breakers have triggered since the market's November 2025 inception, even after 2025's tariff-induced 10% two-day drop. This skin-in-the-game sentiment underscores low crash odds against historical base rates, bolstered by the index's 17% 2025 gain. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI data, FOMC policy signals, and Q1 earnings.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourNYSE disjoncteur Marketwide avant 2027 ?
NYSE disjoncteur Marketwide avant 2027 ?
Oui
$40,904 Vol.
$40,904 Vol.
Oui
$40,904 Vol.
$40,904 Vol.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75.5% implied probability against a NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027, reflecting the S&P 500's resilience despite recent volatility spikes. The VIX surged above 30 in mid-March 2026 amid U.S.-Iran conflict escalation, oil price shocks, and inflation fears, driving daily index declines of 1-2%—well short of the 7% Level 1 threshold. No breakers have triggered since the market's November 2025 inception, even after 2025's tariff-induced 10% two-day drop. This skin-in-the-game sentiment underscores low crash odds against historical base rates, bolstered by the index's 17% 2025 gain. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI data, FOMC policy signals, and Q1 earnings.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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