Name: Nobel Prize in Literature
Start: 2024-10-08T17:21:00.102822Z
End: 2024-10-10T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on predicting the winner of the Nobel Prize in Literature for the current year.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gerald Murnane wins the 2024 Nobel prize in literature. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". 

If there are multiple winners of this award this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement form the Swedish Academy. 

Gerald Murnane

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Can Xue wins the 2024 Nobel prize in literature. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". 

If there are multiple winners of this award this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement form the Swedish Academy. 

 Can Xue

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jamaica Kincaid wins the 2024 Nobel prize in literature. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". 

If there are multiple winners of this award this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement form the Swedish Academy. 

Jamaica Kincaid

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Salman Rushdie wins the 2024 Nobel prize in literature. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". 

If there are multiple winners of this award this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement form the Swedish Academy. 

Salman Rushdie

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alexis Wright wins the 2024 Nobel prize in literature. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". 

If there are multiple winners of this award this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement form the Swedish Academy. 

Alexis Wright

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anne Carson wins the 2024 Nobel prize in literature. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". 

If there are multiple winners of this award this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement form the Swedish Academy. 

Anne Carson

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ko Un wins the 2024 Nobel prize in literature. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". 

If there are multiple winners of this award this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement form the Swedish Academy. 

Ko Un

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ngũgĩ wa Thiong'o wins the 2024 Nobel prize in literature. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". 

If there are multiple winners of this award this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement form the Swedish Academy. 

Ngũgĩ wa Thiong'o

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Thomas Pynchon wins the 2024 Nobel prize in literature. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". 

If there are multiple winners of this award this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement form the Swedish Academy. 

Thomas Pynchon

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Michel Houellebecq wins the 2024 Nobel prize in literature. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". 

If there are multiple winners of this award this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement form the Swedish Academy. 

Michel Houellebecq

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Haruki Murakami wins the 2024 Nobel prize in literature. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". 

If there are multiple winners of this award this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement form the Swedish Academy. 

Haruki Murakami

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any author other than Xue, Kincaid, Rushdie, Wright, Carson, Un, Thion'o, Pynchon, Houllebecq, or Murakami wins the 2024 Nobel prize in literature. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". 

If there are multiple winners of this award this market will resolve to "Yes".

If the Nobel prize in literature is not warded by October 31, 2024 ET this market will resolve to "Yes".

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement form the Swedish Academy. 

Other

Nobel Prize in Literature  

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2026 NBA Finals based off the rules of the NBA.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the NBA.

Les Oklahoma City Thunder gagneront-ils les Finales NBA de 2026 ?

The BAFTA Film Awards are presented annually by the British Academy of Film and Television Arts. For the 2026 BAFTA Film Awards, nominations are scheduled for January 27, 2026, and the ceremony for February 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Original Screenplay category at the 2026 BAFTA Awards.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the BAFTA Awards and the official BAFTA website (https://www.bafta.org/awards/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Est-ce que « Ce n’était qu’un accident » remportera le prix du meilleur scénario original aux BAFTA Awards 2026 ?

The GRAMMY Awards are presented annually by the Recording Academy. For the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards, nominations are scheduled for November 7, 2025, and the ceremony for February 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed compendium that wins Best Classical Compendium at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed compendium that comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the awards and the Grammy website (https://www.grammy.com/); however, other credible reporting may be used.

« Tombeaux - Christina Sandsengen » remportera-t-il le prix du Meilleur Recueil Classique lors de la 68e cérémonie annuelle des GRAMMY Awards ?

The BAFTA Film Awards are presented annually by the British Academy of Film and Television Arts. For the 2026 BAFTA Film Awards, nominations are scheduled for January 27, 2026, and the ceremony for February 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Adapted Screenplay category at the 2026 BAFTA Awards.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the BAFTA Awards and the official BAFTA website (https://www.bafta.org/awards/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Le film « Train Dreams » remportera-t-il le prix du meilleur scénario adapté aux BAFTA Awards 2026 ?

This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy.

If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Calder Memorial Trophy, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Matthew Schaefer remportera-t-il le Trophée commémoratif Calder de la LNH 2025–2026 ?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Kylian Mbappé remportera-t-il le Ballon d'Or 2026 ?

The GRAMMY Awards are presented annually by the Recording Academy. For the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards, nominations are scheduled for November 7, 2025, and the ceremony for February 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed album that wins Best Jazz Instrumental Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed album that comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the awards and the Grammy website (https://www.grammy.com/); however, other credible reporting may be used.

Trilogy 3 — Live - Chick Corea, Christian McBride & Brian Blade remportera-t-il le prix du Meilleur Album de Jazz Instrumental lors de la 68e cérémonie annuelle des GRAMMY Awards ?

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Original Score. 

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Score when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET,  this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Sinners win Best Original Score at the 98th Academy Awards?

The GRAMMY Awards are presented annually by the Recording Academy. For the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards, nominations are scheduled for November 7, 2025, and the ceremony for February 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed album that wins Best Historical Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed album that comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the awards and the Grammy website (https://www.grammy.com/); however, other credible reporting may be used.

Est-ce que « Joni Mitchell Archives - Volume 4: The Asylum Years — 1976-1980 - Joni Mitchell » remportera le prix du meilleur album historique lors de la 68e cérémonie annuelle des GRAMMY Awards ?

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Original Song. 

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Song when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET,  this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Nobel Prize in Literature

Gerald Murnane
$2,110 Vol.
No

Can Xue
$6,645 Vol.
No

Jamaica Kincaid
$1,239 Vol.
No

Salman Rushdie
$1,507 Vol.
No

Alexis Wright
$1,574 Vol.
No

Anne Carson
$850 Vol.
No

Ko Un
$962 Vol.
No

Ngũgĩ wa Thiong'o
$792 Vol.
No

Thomas Pynchon
$1,016 Vol.
No

Michel Houellebecq
$1,846 Vol.
No

Haruki Murakami
$1,676 Vol.
No

Other
$19,063 Vol.
Yes

Contexte du Marché

Nobel Prize in Literature

Règles

Nobel Prize in Literature

Contexte du Marché

Nobel Prize in Literature

À propos

Nobel Prize in Literature

Gerald Murnane$2,110 Vol.No

Can Xue$6,645 Vol.No

Jamaica Kincaid$1,239 Vol.No

Salman Rushdie$1,507 Vol.No

Alexis Wright$1,574 Vol.No

Anne Carson$850 Vol.No

Ko Un$962 Vol.No

Ngũgĩ wa Thiong'o$792 Vol.No

Thomas Pynchon$1,016 Vol.No

Michel Houellebecq$1,846 Vol.No

Haruki Murakami$1,676 Vol.No

Other$19,063 Vol.Yes

Contexte du Marché

Nobel Prize in Literature

Règles

Nobel Prize in Literature

Contexte du Marché

Nobel Prize in Literature

À propos

Gerald Murnane
$2,110 Vol.
No

Can Xue
$6,645 Vol.
No

Jamaica Kincaid
$1,239 Vol.
No

Salman Rushdie
$1,507 Vol.
No

Alexis Wright
$1,574 Vol.
No

Anne Carson
$850 Vol.
No

Ko Un
$962 Vol.
No

Ngũgĩ wa Thiong'o
$792 Vol.
No

Thomas Pynchon
$1,016 Vol.
No

Michel Houellebecq
$1,846 Vol.
No

Haruki Murakami
$1,676 Vol.
No

Other
$19,063 Vol.
Yes