Trader consensus assigns a 93% implied probability to the Democratic Party in North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District House race, reflecting incumbent Rep. Deborah Ross's dominant position in this safely Democratic seat centered in Raleigh's Wake County. Ross, who won with 65% in 2022 and similar margins previously, leads Republican challenger Alan Swain by 20+ points in recent polling averages, bolstered by superior fundraising and voter registration edges among the district's educated, diverse electorate. No significant developments have emerged in the past 30 days to challenge this positioning, with early voting now underway ahead of the November 5 election. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Democratic scandal, unprecedented GOP turnout in this D+7 Cook PVI district, or late-breaking national momentum, though historical precedents for safe incumbents suggest low likelihood.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourNC-02 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NC-02 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Parti démocrate
93%
Parti républicain
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Parti démocrate
$0 Vol.
93%
Parti républicain
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus assigns a 93% implied probability to the Democratic Party in North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District House race, reflecting incumbent Rep. Deborah Ross's dominant position in this safely Democratic seat centered in Raleigh's Wake County. Ross, who won with 65% in 2022 and similar margins previously, leads Republican challenger Alan Swain by 20+ points in recent polling averages, bolstered by superior fundraising and voter registration edges among the district's educated, diverse electorate. No significant developments have emerged in the past 30 days to challenge this positioning, with early voting now underway ahead of the November 5 election. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Democratic scandal, unprecedented GOP turnout in this D+7 Cook PVI district, or late-breaking national momentum, though historical precedents for safe incumbents suggest low likelihood.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus assigns a 93% implied probability to the Democratic Party in North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District House race, reflecting incumbent Rep. Deborah Ross's dominant position in this safely Democratic seat centered in Raleigh's Wake County. Ross, who won with 65% in 2022 and similar margins previously, leads Republican challenger Alan Swain by 20+ points in recent polling averages, bolstered by superior fundraising and voter registration edges among the district's educated, diverse electorate. No significant developments have emerged in the past 30 days to challenge this positioning, with early voting now underway ahead of the November 5 election. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Democratic scandal, unprecedented GOP turnout in this D+7 Cook PVI district, or late-breaking national momentum, though historical precedents for safe incumbents suggest low likelihood.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$0Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns a 93% implied probability to the Democratic Party in North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District House race, reflecting incumbent Rep. Deborah Ross's dominant position in this safely Democratic seat centered in Raleigh's Wake County. Ross, who won with 65% in 2022 and similar margins previously, leads Republican challenger Alan Swain by 20+ points in recent polling averages, bolstered by superior fundraising and voter registration edges among the district's educated, diverse electorate. No significant developments have emerged in the past 30 days to challenge this positioning, with early voting now underway ahead of the November 5 election. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Democratic scandal, unprecedented GOP turnout in this D+7 Cook PVI district, or late-breaking national momentum, though historical precedents for safe incumbents suggest low likelihood.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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