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Politique·Élections Du 4 Novembre

MT-02 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre

Market icon
Politique·Élections Du 4 Novembre

MT-02 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre

NEW
Polymarket
NEW

Parti républicain

$0 Vol.

92%

Parti démocrate

$2,442 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors the Republican Party at 91.5% implied probability to win Montana's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. Matt Rosendale's commanding lead in this R+16 leaning district. Rosendale, who briefly explored a Senate bid before recommitting to his House re-election, maintains a double-digit advantage over Democratic challenger Tom Winter in the latest polls, bolstered by superior fundraising, incumbency advantages, and consistent voter registration edges in the district. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with early voting now underway ahead of the November 5 general election. Scenarios that could challenge this include a late-breaking scandal, health issue for Rosendale, or anomalous Democratic turnout surge, though historical base rates in safe districts suggest low likelihood.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$2,442
Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors the Republican Party at 91.5% implied probability to win Montana's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. Matt Rosendale's commanding lead in this R+16 leaning district. Rosendale, who briefly explored a Senate bid before recommitting to his House re-election, maintains a double-digit advantage over Democratic challenger Tom Winter in the latest polls, bolstered by superior fundraising, incumbency advantages, and consistent voter registration edges in the district. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with early voting now underway ahead of the November 5 general election. Scenarios that could challenge this include a late-breaking scandal, health issue for Rosendale, or anomalous Democratic turnout surge, though historical base rates in safe districts suggest low likelihood.

Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors the Republican Party at 91.5% implied probability to win Montana's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. Matt Rosendale's commanding lead in this R+16 leaning district. Rosendale, who briefly explored a Senate bid before recommitting to his House re-election, maintains a double-digit advantage over Democratic challenger Tom Winter in the latest polls, bolstered by superior fundraising, incumbency advantages, and consistent voter registration edges in the district. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with early voting now underway ahead of the November 5 general election. Scenarios that could challenge this include a late-breaking scandal, health issue for Rosendale, or anomalous Democratic turnout surge, though historical base rates in safe districts suggest low likelihood.

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Questions fréquentes

« MT-02 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Parti républicain » à 92%, suivi de « Parti démocrate » à 7%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 92¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 92% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« MT-02 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Jan 28, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « MT-02 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « MT-02 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre » est « Parti républicain » à 92%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 92% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Parti démocrate » à 7%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « MT-02 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.