Montana’s 2nd Congressional District carries a Partisan Voter Index of R+15 and covers largely rural eastern portions of the state including Billings and Great Falls. Incumbent Republican Troy Downing won the seat in 2024 by a wide margin and faces only token Democratic opposition ahead of the June 2 primaries. Nonpartisan rating firms classify the race as solid or safe Republican, reflecting the district’s consistent electoral history and limited crossover appeal for challengers. Traders have priced in these structural factors, assigning the Republican nominee a 92.5 percent implied probability of victory. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unusually strong Democratic mobilization in the final months could still alter the outcome, though current conditions show no such catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMT-02 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
MT-02 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
93%
Parti démocrate
7%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$6,411 Vol.
93%
Parti démocrate
$2,914 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Montana’s 2nd Congressional District carries a Partisan Voter Index of R+15 and covers largely rural eastern portions of the state including Billings and Great Falls. Incumbent Republican Troy Downing won the seat in 2024 by a wide margin and faces only token Democratic opposition ahead of the June 2 primaries. Nonpartisan rating firms classify the race as solid or safe Republican, reflecting the district’s consistent electoral history and limited crossover appeal for challengers. Traders have priced in these structural factors, assigning the Republican nominee a 92.5 percent implied probability of victory. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unusually strong Democratic mobilization in the final months could still alter the outcome, though current conditions show no such catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$9,324Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Montana’s 2nd Congressional District carries a Partisan Voter Index of R+15 and covers largely rural eastern portions of the state including Billings and Great Falls. Incumbent Republican Troy Downing won the seat in 2024 by a wide margin and faces only token Democratic opposition ahead of the June 2 primaries. Nonpartisan rating firms classify the race as solid or safe Republican, reflecting the district’s consistent electoral history and limited crossover appeal for challengers. Traders have priced in these structural factors, assigning the Republican nominee a 92.5 percent implied probability of victory. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unusually strong Democratic mobilization in the final months could still alter the outcome, though current conditions show no such catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$9,324Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Montana’s 2nd Congressional District carries a Partisan Voter Index of R+15 and covers largely rural eastern portions of the state including Billings and Great Falls. Incumbent Republican Troy Downing won the seat in 2024 by a wide margin and faces only token Democratic opposition ahead of the June 2 primaries. Nonpartisan rating firms classify the race as solid or safe Republican, reflecting the district’s consistent electoral history and limited crossover appeal for challengers. Traders have priced in these structural factors, assigning the Republican nominee a 92.5 percent implied probability of victory. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unusually strong Democratic mobilization in the final months could still alter the outcome, though current conditions show no such catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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