Microsoft shares have traded in a narrow 405-422 range since the April 29 fiscal Q3 earnings beat, where revenue rose 18% year-over-year to $82.9 billion and Azure accelerated 40%, yet guidance for $190 billion in calendar-2026 capital expenditures sparked immediate selling. This high capex trajectory, driven by AI infrastructure needs, has kept implied probabilities evenly distributed across closing-price buckets for the week of May 18, reflecting trader uncertainty over whether recent support near 410 will hold or yield to renewed pressure from elevated spending. No major catalysts are scheduled before the May 21 ex-dividend date, leaving the outcome dependent on broader market sentiment and any follow-through from the post-earnings reset.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour<$360 50%
$360-$370 50%
>$450 46%
$410-$420 19%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
22 mai 2026
<$360
50%
$360-$370
50%
$370-$380
9%
$380-$390
8%
$390-$400
12%
$400-$410
16%
$410-$420
19%
$420-$430
19%
$430-$440
15%
$440-$450
12%
>$450
46%
<$360 50%
$360-$370 50%
>$450 46%
$410-$420 19%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
22 mai 2026
<$360
$0 Vol.
50%
$360-$370
$0 Vol.
50%
$370-$380
$0 Vol.
9%
$380-$390
$0 Vol.
8%
$390-$400
$0 Vol.
12%
$400-$410
$0 Vol.
16%
$410-$420
$0 Vol.
19%
$420-$430
$0 Vol.
19%
$430-$440
$0 Vol.
15%
$440-$450
$0 Vol.
12%
>$450
$0 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."Microsoft shares have traded in a narrow 405-422 range since the April 29 fiscal Q3 earnings beat, where revenue rose 18% year-over-year to $82.9 billion and Azure accelerated 40%, yet guidance for $190 billion in calendar-2026 capital expenditures sparked immediate selling. This high capex trajectory, driven by AI infrastructure needs, has kept implied probabilities evenly distributed across closing-price buckets for the week of May 18, reflecting trader uncertainty over whether recent support near 410 will hold or yield to renewed pressure from elevated spending. No major catalysts are scheduled before the May 21 ex-dividend date, leaving the outcome dependent on broader market sentiment and any follow-through from the post-earnings reset.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Marché ouvert : May 15, 2026, 6:01 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
22 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 6:01 PM ETSource de résolution
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/historyResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."Microsoft shares have traded in a narrow 405-422 range since the April 29 fiscal Q3 earnings beat, where revenue rose 18% year-over-year to $82.9 billion and Azure accelerated 40%, yet guidance for $190 billion in calendar-2026 capital expenditures sparked immediate selling. This high capex trajectory, driven by AI infrastructure needs, has kept implied probabilities evenly distributed across closing-price buckets for the week of May 18, reflecting trader uncertainty over whether recent support near 410 will hold or yield to renewed pressure from elevated spending. No major catalysts are scheduled before the May 21 ex-dividend date, leaving the outcome dependent on broader market sentiment and any follow-through from the post-earnings reset.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$0Date de fin
22 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 6:01 PM ETSource de résolution
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/historyResolver
0x69c47De9D...Microsoft shares have traded in a narrow 405-422 range since the April 29 fiscal Q3 earnings beat, where revenue rose 18% year-over-year to $82.9 billion and Azure accelerated 40%, yet guidance for $190 billion in calendar-2026 capital expenditures sparked immediate selling. This high capex trajectory, driven by AI infrastructure needs, has kept implied probabilities evenly distributed across closing-price buckets for the week of May 18, reflecting trader uncertainty over whether recent support near 410 will hold or yield to renewed pressure from elevated spending. No major catalysts are scheduled before the May 21 ex-dividend date, leaving the outcome dependent on broader market sentiment and any follow-through from the post-earnings reset.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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