Market icon
Géopolitique·Hamas

Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first?

Market icon
Géopolitique·Hamas

Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first?

Gaza

>99% chance
Polymarket

$86,202 Vol.

Gaza

>99% chance
Polymarket

$86,202 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Gaza" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. This market will resolve to "Ukraine" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. If an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve, regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. Regarding the Israel x Hamas ceasefire, an announced agreement to reinstate the previous agreed-upon January 15th ceasefire deal will qualify. If neither ceasefire is reached by the end of this market, or if both ceasefires are reached at the same time, this market will resolve to 50-50. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both parties involved in each conflict; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will qualify.

This market will resolve to "Gaza" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

This market will resolve to "Ukraine" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas.

If an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve, regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Regarding the Israel x Hamas ceasefire, an announced agreement to reinstate the previous agreed-upon January 15th ceasefire deal will qualify.

If neither ceasefire is reached by the end of this market, or if both ceasefires are reached at the same time, this market will resolve to 50-50.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both parties involved in each conflict; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will qualify.
Volume
$86,202
Date de fin
31 déc. 2025
Marché ouvert
Aug 11, 2025, 11:17 AM ET

Resolver

0x157Ce2d67...
This market will resolve to "Gaza" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. This market will resolve to "Ukraine" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. If an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve, regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. Regarding the Israel x Hamas ceasefire, an announced agreement to reinstate the previous agreed-upon January 15th ceasefire deal will qualify. If neither ceasefire is reached by the end of this market, or if both ceasefires are reached at the same time, this market will resolve to 50-50. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both parties involved in each conflict; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will qualify.

Résultat proposé: Gaza

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: Gaza

This market will resolve to "Gaza" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. This market will resolve to "Ukraine" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. If an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve, regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. Regarding the Israel x Hamas ceasefire, an announced agreement to reinstate the previous agreed-upon January 15th ceasefire deal will qualify. If neither ceasefire is reached by the end of this market, or if both ceasefires are reached at the same time, this market will resolve to 50-50. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both parties involved in each conflict; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will qualify.

This market will resolve to "Gaza" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

This market will resolve to "Ukraine" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas.

If an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve, regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Regarding the Israel x Hamas ceasefire, an announced agreement to reinstate the previous agreed-upon January 15th ceasefire deal will qualify.

If neither ceasefire is reached by the end of this market, or if both ceasefires are reached at the same time, this market will resolve to 50-50.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both parties involved in each conflict; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will qualify.
Volume
$86,202
Date de fin
31 déc. 2025
Marché ouvert
Aug 11, 2025, 11:17 AM ET

Resolver

0x157Ce2d67...
This market will resolve to "Gaza" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. This market will resolve to "Ukraine" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. If an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve, regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. Regarding the Israel x Hamas ceasefire, an announced agreement to reinstate the previous agreed-upon January 15th ceasefire deal will qualify. If neither ceasefire is reached by the end of this market, or if both ceasefires are reached at the same time, this market will resolve to 50-50. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both parties involved in each conflict; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will qualify.

Résultat proposé: Gaza

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: Gaza

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first? » à 100%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 100¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first? » a généré $86.2K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Aug 11, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first? » est « Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first? » à 100%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.