Traders assign nearly identical implied probabilities around 47% to several ISM Services PMI ranges for May 2026, reflecting broad uncertainty ahead of the June 3 release. Recent April data showed a modest pullback to 53.6 amid softer new orders and employment contraction, while persistent Middle East conflict-driven spikes in energy and commodity prices have elevated the prices-paid index to multi-year highs. These factors, combined with resilient yet cautious consumer spending and mixed regional Fed services surveys, leave room for outcomes both below and above the 50 expansion threshold. Market-implied odds capture this dispersion in real-time trader consensus rather than any single forecast.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour55,0+ 94%
50.0–50.9 47%
52,0–52,9 47%
48,0–48,9 38%
<47.0
22%
47,0–47,9
22%
48,0–48,9
38%
49,0–49,9
47%
50.0–50.9
47%
51,0–51,9
22%
52,0–52,9
47%
53,0–53,9
42%
54,0–54,9
47%
55,0+
94%
55,0+ 94%
50.0–50.9 47%
52,0–52,9 47%
48,0–48,9 38%
<47.0
22%
47,0–47,9
22%
48,0–48,9
38%
49,0–49,9
47%
50.0–50.9
47%
51,0–51,9
22%
52,0–52,9
47%
53,0–53,9
42%
54,0–54,9
47%
55,0+
94%
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for May 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for May 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on June 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Marché ouvert : May 28, 2026, 2:16 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for May 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for May 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on June 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign nearly identical implied probabilities around 47% to several ISM Services PMI ranges for May 2026, reflecting broad uncertainty ahead of the June 3 release. Recent April data showed a modest pullback to 53.6 amid softer new orders and employment contraction, while persistent Middle East conflict-driven spikes in energy and commodity prices have elevated the prices-paid index to multi-year highs. These factors, combined with resilient yet cautious consumer spending and mixed regional Fed services surveys, leave room for outcomes both below and above the 50 expansion threshold. Market-implied odds capture this dispersion in real-time trader consensus rather than any single forecast.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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