Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, prompting the Assembly of Experts to name his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor on March 8 amid escalating regional conflict. Recent U.S. intelligence reports, as of early April, indicate Mojtaba suffered severe injuries—potentially including amputations, spinal damage, and brain trauma—from related airstrikes, rendering him sidelined and unable to lead effectively; he has not appeared publicly, with some accounts suggesting treatment in Russia. This has plunged the regime into a fragmented "mosaic command" structure dominated by IRGC elements, fueling trader consensus on ongoing instability and risks of further leadership transition before year's end. Upcoming Assembly deliberations or intensified military actions could accelerate shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$6,304,979 Vol.
30 avr. 2026
30 avril
11%
31 mai
15%
30 juin
22%
31 décembre
40%
$6,304,979 Vol.
30 avril
$1,795,843 Vol.
11%
31 mai
$103,974 Vol.
15%
30 juin
$49,159 Vol.
22%
31 décembre
$1,125,082 Vol.
40%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, prompting the Assembly of Experts to name his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor on March 8 amid escalating regional conflict. Recent U.S. intelligence reports, as of early April, indicate Mojtaba suffered severe injuries—potentially including amputations, spinal damage, and brain trauma—from related airstrikes, rendering him sidelined and unable to lead effectively; he has not appeared publicly, with some accounts suggesting treatment in Russia. This has plunged the regime into a fragmented "mosaic command" structure dominated by IRGC elements, fueling trader consensus on ongoing instability and risks of further leadership transition before year's end. Upcoming Assembly deliberations or intensified military actions could accelerate shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
Volume
$6,304,979Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, prompting the Assembly of Experts to name his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor on March 8 amid escalating regional conflict. Recent U.S. intelligence reports, as of early April, indicate Mojtaba suffered severe injuries—potentially including amputations, spinal damage, and brain trauma—from related airstrikes, rendering him sidelined and unable to lead effectively; he has not appeared publicly, with some accounts suggesting treatment in Russia. This has plunged the regime into a fragmented "mosaic command" structure dominated by IRGC elements, fueling trader consensus on ongoing instability and risks of further leadership transition before year's end. Upcoming Assembly deliberations or intensified military actions could accelerate shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,304,979Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, prompting the Assembly of Experts to name his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor on March 8 amid escalating regional conflict. Recent U.S. intelligence reports, as of early April, indicate Mojtaba suffered severe injuries—potentially including amputations, spinal damage, and brain trauma—from related airstrikes, rendering him sidelined and unable to lead effectively; he has not appeared publicly, with some accounts suggesting treatment in Russia. This has plunged the regime into a fragmented "mosaic command" structure dominated by IRGC elements, fueling trader consensus on ongoing instability and risks of further leadership transition before year's end. Upcoming Assembly deliberations or intensified military actions could accelerate shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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