Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989 and now 85, shows no verified health decline or succession signals, anchoring trader consensus against near-term leadership change. State media highlighted his recent public addresses following Iran's October 1 missile strikes on Israel—retaliation for assassinations of Hezbollah's Nasrallah and Hamas's Haniyeh—and Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military targets, projecting continuity amid escalation. Persistent economic pressures from sanctions and echoes of 2022 protests linger as risks, but no internal power shifts or elite defections have emerged in the past 30 days. Potential catalysts include sudden health events or intensified regional conflict drawing in U.S. or Gulf states, with resolution tied to official announcements by the specified date.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$4,786,085 Vol.
May 31, 2026
31 mars
6%
30 avril
24%
31 mai
32%
30 juin
40%
31 décembre
51%
$4,786,085 Vol.
31 mars
$2,709,967 Vol.
6%
30 avril
$1,259,366 Vol.
24%
31 mai
$18,551 Vol.
32%
30 juin
$8,773 Vol.
40%
31 décembre
$791,403 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989 and now 85, shows no verified health decline or succession signals, anchoring trader consensus against near-term leadership change. State media highlighted his recent public addresses following Iran's October 1 missile strikes on Israel—retaliation for assassinations of Hezbollah's Nasrallah and Hamas's Haniyeh—and Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military targets, projecting continuity amid escalation. Persistent economic pressures from sanctions and echoes of 2022 protests linger as risks, but no internal power shifts or elite defections have emerged in the past 30 days. Potential catalysts include sudden health events or intensified regional conflict drawing in U.S. or Gulf states, with resolution tied to official announcements by the specified date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ET
Volume
$4,786,085Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989 and now 85, shows no verified health decline or succession signals, anchoring trader consensus against near-term leadership change. State media highlighted his recent public addresses following Iran's October 1 missile strikes on Israel—retaliation for assassinations of Hezbollah's Nasrallah and Hamas's Haniyeh—and Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military targets, projecting continuity amid escalation. Persistent economic pressures from sanctions and echoes of 2022 protests linger as risks, but no internal power shifts or elite defections have emerged in the past 30 days. Potential catalysts include sudden health events or intensified regional conflict drawing in U.S. or Gulf states, with resolution tied to official announcements by the specified date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$4,786,085Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989 and now 85, shows no verified health decline or succession signals, anchoring trader consensus against near-term leadership change. State media highlighted his recent public addresses following Iran's October 1 missile strikes on Israel—retaliation for assassinations of Hezbollah's Nasrallah and Hamas's Haniyeh—and Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military targets, projecting continuity amid escalation. Persistent economic pressures from sanctions and echoes of 2022 protests linger as risks, but no internal power shifts or elite defections have emerged in the past 30 days. Potential catalysts include sudden health events or intensified regional conflict drawing in U.S. or Gulf states, with resolution tied to official announcements by the specified date.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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