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Politique·Élections Du 4 Novembre

Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre IL-10

Market icon
Politique·Élections Du 4 Novembre

Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre IL-10

NEW
Polymarket
NEW

Parti démocrate

$3,472 Vol.

95%

Parti républicain

$0 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Brad Schneider's decisive victory in the March 17, 2026, Illinois Democratic primary over challenger Morgan Coghill has reinforced trader consensus favoring a Democratic hold on IL-10, a North Shore suburban district with a strong partisan lean toward Democrats based on historical voting patterns and recent election results. Republican nominee Carl Lambrecht advanced unopposed in his primary, signaling limited GOP competition in this safely blue seat where Schneider has routinely won reelection by wide margins. Current 94.5% implied probability for Democrats reflects his incumbency advantage, fundraising edge, and district demographics favoring the party. Upsets remain possible via late scandals, health issues, or a national Republican midterm wave, though structural barriers make these low-probability scenarios. The general election is November 3, 2026.

Incumbent Democrat Brad Schneider's decisive victory in the March 17, 2026, Illinois Democratic primary over challenger Morgan Coghill has reinforced trader consensus favoring a Democratic hold on IL-10, a North Shore suburban district with a strong partisan lean toward Democrats based on historical voting patterns and recent election results. Republican nominee Carl Lambrecht advanced unopposed in his primary, signaling limited GOP competition in this safely blue seat where Schneider has routinely won reelection by wide margins. Current 94.5% implied probability for Democrats reflects his incumbency advantage, fundraising edge, and district demographics favoring the party. Upsets remain possible via late scandals, health issues, or a national Republican midterm wave, though structural barriers make these low-probability scenarios. The general election is November 3, 2026.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Brad Schneider's decisive victory in the March 17, 2026, Illinois Democratic primary over challenger Morgan Coghill has reinforced trader consensus favoring a Democratic hold on IL-10, a North Shore suburban district with a strong partisan lean toward Democrats based on historical voting patterns and recent election results. Republican nominee Carl Lambrecht advanced unopposed in his primary, signaling limited GOP competition in this safely blue seat where Schneider has routinely won reelection by wide margins. Current 94.5% implied probability for Democrats reflects his incumbency advantage, fundraising edge, and district demographics favoring the party. Upsets remain possible via late scandals, health issues, or a national Republican midterm wave, though structural barriers make these low-probability scenarios. The general election is November 3, 2026.

Incumbent Democrat Brad Schneider's decisive victory in the March 17, 2026, Illinois Democratic primary over challenger Morgan Coghill has reinforced trader consensus favoring a Democratic hold on IL-10, a North Shore suburban district with a strong partisan lean toward Democrats based on historical voting patterns and recent election results. Republican nominee Carl Lambrecht advanced unopposed in his primary, signaling limited GOP competition in this safely blue seat where Schneider has routinely won reelection by wide margins. Current 94.5% implied probability for Democrats reflects his incumbency advantage, fundraising edge, and district demographics favoring the party. Upsets remain possible via late scandals, health issues, or a national Republican midterm wave, though structural barriers make these low-probability scenarios. The general election is November 3, 2026.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre IL-10 » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Parti démocrate » à 95%, suivi de « Parti républicain » à 6%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 95¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 95% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre IL-10 » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Jan 28, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre IL-10 », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre IL-10 » est « Parti démocrate » à 95%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 95% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Parti républicain » à 6%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre IL-10 » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.