Trader consensus on Polymarket shows 99.4% implied probability against the ICE official dubbed "Shooter" being fired or resigning by March 31, reflecting the complete absence of recent catalysts within DHS or the executive branch that could trigger such an outcome. Over the past 30 days, no official announcements, internal investigations, performance disputes, or scandals involving ICE leadership have surfaced, maintaining positional stability amid routine agency operations on immigration enforcement and border security. With the deadline now passed without incident, resolution awaits formal confirmation, but traders dismiss low-probability scenarios like late-emerging health issues, abrupt White House directives, or unexpected legal challenges as insufficient to alter the status quo.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$310,740 Vol.
$310,740 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Oui
$310,740 Vol.
$310,740 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
On January 7, 2026, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer committed a shooting in Minneapolis (see: https://apnews.com/article/minnesota-immigration-enforcement-shooting-crackdown-surge-173e00fa7388054e98c3b5b9417c1e5a).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the ICE Officer who fired the shots in the specified shooting ceases to be an employee of ICE for any length of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement of the officer’s resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.
Suspensions, administrative leave, or other temporary measures will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from ICE and the U.S. federal government; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
On January 7, 2026, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer committed a shooting in Minneapolis (see: https://apnews.com/article/minnesota-immigration-enforcement-shooting-crackdown-surge-173e00fa7388054e98c3b5b9417c1e5a).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the ICE Officer who fired the shots in the specified shooting ceases to be an employee of ICE for any length of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement of the officer’s resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.
Suspensions, administrative leave, or other temporary measures will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from ICE and the U.S. federal government; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.On January 7, 2026, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer committed a shooting in Minneapolis (see: https://apnews.com/article/minnesota-immigration-enforcement-shooting-crackdown-surge-173e00fa7388054e98c3b5b9417c1e5a).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the ICE Officer who fired the shots in the specified shooting ceases to be an employee of ICE for any length of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement of the officer’s resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.
Suspensions, administrative leave, or other temporary measures will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from ICE and the U.S. federal government; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the ICE Officer who fired the shots in the specified shooting ceases to be an employee of ICE for any length of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement of the officer’s resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.
Suspensions, administrative leave, or other temporary measures will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from ICE and the U.S. federal government; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jan 8, 2026, 10:54 AM ET
Volume
$310,740Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 8, 2026, 10:54 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On January 7, 2026, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer committed a shooting in Minneapolis (see: https://apnews.com/article/minnesota-immigration-enforcement-shooting-crackdown-surge-173e00fa7388054e98c3b5b9417c1e5a).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the ICE Officer who fired the shots in the specified shooting ceases to be an employee of ICE for any length of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement of the officer’s resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.
Suspensions, administrative leave, or other temporary measures will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from ICE and the U.S. federal government; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
On January 7, 2026, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer committed a shooting in Minneapolis (see: https://apnews.com/article/minnesota-immigration-enforcement-shooting-crackdown-surge-173e00fa7388054e98c3b5b9417c1e5a).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the ICE Officer who fired the shots in the specified shooting ceases to be an employee of ICE for any length of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement of the officer’s resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.
Suspensions, administrative leave, or other temporary measures will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from ICE and the U.S. federal government; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.On January 7, 2026, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer committed a shooting in Minneapolis (see: https://apnews.com/article/minnesota-immigration-enforcement-shooting-crackdown-surge-173e00fa7388054e98c3b5b9417c1e5a).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the ICE Officer who fired the shots in the specified shooting ceases to be an employee of ICE for any length of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement of the officer’s resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.
Suspensions, administrative leave, or other temporary measures will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from ICE and the U.S. federal government; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the ICE Officer who fired the shots in the specified shooting ceases to be an employee of ICE for any length of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement of the officer’s resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.
Suspensions, administrative leave, or other temporary measures will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from ICE and the U.S. federal government; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$310,740Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 8, 2026, 10:54 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket shows 99.4% implied probability against the ICE official dubbed "Shooter" being fired or resigning by March 31, reflecting the complete absence of recent catalysts within DHS or the executive branch that could trigger such an outcome. Over the past 30 days, no official announcements, internal investigations, performance disputes, or scandals involving ICE leadership have surfaced, maintaining positional stability amid routine agency operations on immigration enforcement and border security. With the deadline now passed without incident, resolution awaits formal confirmation, but traders dismiss low-probability scenarios like late-emerging health issues, abrupt White House directives, or unexpected legal challenges as insufficient to alter the status quo.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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